2024 WTA Finals: Day 3 Analysis

Featured match: Rybakina vs Zheng

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Featured Match — Day 3

#5 Elena Rybakina vs #7 Qinwen Zheng

source: WTA Finals

• H-2-H: Rybakina led 2-0

• Last meeting: Rybakina 6-1 6-2 — 2023 WTA 1000 Beijing R64, hardcourt

Forehand performances decided the clash between big hitters and first day losers.

Qinwen Zheng outplayed Elena Rybakina from the forehand wing by 21 points to score her first win in their head-to-head and go into the last round of group action with a chance to reach the semifinals.

The Chinese finished the match with 21 winning forehands and 25 errors from that side for a -4 differential. Rybakina could only counter with 15 winning forehands and 40 errors (including 22 unforced errors) for a -25 differential.

Forehand Performances

Elena Rybakina

• 7 winners + 8 forcing shots

• 22 unforced errors + 18 forced errors

• +/- = -25

Qinwen Zheng

• 13 winners + 8 forcing shots

• 13 unforced errors + 12 forced errors

• +/- = -4

Whenever rallies settled through the Deuce court, there was a higher probability that it would end on a Rybakina crosscourt error…

📺 source: WTA Tv

… or a Zheng down-the-line winner.

In total, Rybakina made 13 unforced errors on crosscourt forehands (green box below). Those numbers were made even worse because the Kazakh wasn’t very inspired when hitting other forehands. It is true that she wasn’t as error-prone but generating 2 winning shots on line or inside forehands is just too short for a 3-set match.

By contrast, Zheng got plenty of offensive production from down the line forehands. She was very efficient doing it, striking 15 winning groundstrokes with just 5 unforced errors (blue box below).

Intended direction of groundstroke winning shots (= winners+forcing shots) and unforced errors. Returns and volleys/overheads are not included. Down-the-line is considered broadly and includes more central shots that land on the same court half.