Andreescu vs Samsonova: 's-Hertogenbosch Final Analysis (WTA 250)

Body serves, “Serve+1s”, and Samsonova's ability to determine the outcome of 5+ shot rallies.

cover 📸 credit: Libéma Open website

Liudmila Samsonova claimed her 5th career WTA Tour title by spoiling Bianca Andreescu’s 24th birthday in the ‘s-Hertogenbosch final.

The title run lifted Samsonova’s record above 50% for the first time this year. It now stands at 15-13. While the early part of Samsonova’s season includes 8 first round losses, her form may be finally picking up given her 10 wins in the last 13 matches.

Great form is what Andreescu is showing in her return to the Tour following 9 months out with a back injury. Even though her quest for a first trophy since the 2019 US Open will have to continue, Andreescu must be pleased with how her comeback is progressing. She has won 6 of 8 matches, reached the third round at Roland Garros (only losing in 3 sets to eventual finalist Jasmine Paolini) and qualified for her first final in 2 years (since 2022 Bad Homburg).

Each point is considered only once. Therefore, aces are not included in winner totals and double faults are not included in unforced error totals.

The 2024 ‘s-Hertogenbosch final was decided by the following factors:

1. Body serves

2. “Serve+1s”

3. Samsonova's ability to determine the outcome of 5+ shot rallies

Andreescu made 34 return errors while Samsonova missed 27 returns.

It was a 7-point gap created almost entirely by Samsonova’s riskier 2nd serves.

• Return errors vs 1st serves: Andreescu 21 / Samsonova 20

• Return errors vs 2nd serves: Andreescu 13 / Samsonova 7

Overall, Samsonova continuously attacked Andreescu with body serves. These extracted 19 return errors.

Andreescu Return Errors

• 11 vs wide serves

• 19 vs body serves

• 4 vs T serves

Samsonova Return Errors

• 15 vs wide serves

• 7 vs body serves

• 5 vs T serves

Samsonova enjoyed a slow start to the match, accumulating 6 “serve+1” errors in her first 3 serve games and facing break points in all of them.