WTA500 Brisbane: Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Kudermetova final analysis

The usual Sabalenka title to start an odd year season arrived in a rather unsual fashion

Aryna Sabalenka loves playing in Australia probably just as much as she enjoys checking during pre-season there’s an odd year coming up. For the fourth straight time, the world #1 started an odd year season with a title:

• 2019, WTA 250 Shenzhen

• 2021, WTA 500 Abu Dhabi

• 2023, WTA 500 Adelaide

• 2025, WTA 500 Brisbane

Sabalenka’s latest triumph extended to 12 her unbeaten streak in Australia, where she has won 27 of her last 28 matches. Since the start of 2023, the 2023 and 2024 Australian Open champion has only been defeated Down Under by Elena Rybakina, in the 2024 Brisbane final.

source: Brisbane International

If Sabalenka capturing a title in Australia during the first week of the season can hardly be considered a surprise, there was something different about this year’s Brisbane title decider: for once, she was the more conservative player on court. Not often do we see Sabalenka as the one opting for higher percentage serves or holding back when there’s a lot of free court available, as shown here.

→ Sabalenka didn’t pull the trigger on a line backhand, even with Kudermetova almost at the Ad court sideline

📺 source: WTA Tv

In fact, the world #1 spent a large portion of the match on the back foot, pushed back by Polina Kudermetova’s flat-out shots.

The younger of the Kudermetova siblings may have started the week on the qualifying draw and ranked outside the Top-100, but she marvelled with fearless, super-aggressive tennis while grabbing 7 wins to reach her first career Tour final and earn a 50-place jump to #57 in the WTA rankings (for the first time above sister and former Top-10 Verokina, currently standing at #77).

In the round of 16, Polina claimed her first career Top-10 scalp by recovering from 0-4 down in the third set (and saving 2 game points to avoid falling 0-5 behind) to defeat third-seed Daria Kasatkina 1-6, 6-2, 7-5.

Against Sabalenka in the Brisbane final, Kudermetova was unstoppable behind her 1st serve for the first 2 sets, conceding just 7 of 35 points.

Kudermetova 1st serve points won (sets 1 and 2)

• Set 1: 78% (18/23)

• Set 2: 83% (10/12)

The 21-year was actually the first finalist to lose serve, after a couple of double-faults and “serve+1” unforced errors in the 3rd game.

Two consecutive double faults in her next serve game left Kudermetova on the verge of a double-break deficit. But she saved the break point with an ace and went on a roll, winning 12 of the next 15 points to turn the set around.

→ Kudermetova delivered an ace to escape falling 1-4 and 2 breaks down

Eventually, Kudermetova won 5 of 6 games to take a one-set lead.

In addition to 5 aces and another 7 unreturned serves, she outrallied Sabalenka from the back of the court and won all 6 points lasting 6+ shots (set point included, shown below).

Set 1 key stats

• Baseline duels: 21-16 Kudermetova

• 6+ shots won: 6-0 Kudermetova

• Winners: 11-6 Kudermetova

• Kudermetova: 5 aces, 48% of unreturned 1st serves

• Sabalenka: 7 return errors

→ On set point #2, Kudermetova was very fast transitioning from defence to offense. For most of the set, she was the one dictating play.