Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka: Australian Open second round analysis

Osaka's backhand kept her in the match and the forehand won it

Stage 2 of Naomi Osaka’s ‘Payback Slam’ is complete.

Following a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win over Caroline Garcia in a rematch of last year’s Australian Open first round, Osaka rallied from a set down to defeat 20th-seed Karolina Muchova 1-6, 6-1, 6-3 and avenge her second round loss to the Czech at the 2024 US Open.

📸 cover source: Australian Open

Next up for the 4-time Major champion and former #1 will be Belinda Bencic, holder of a 3-2 lead in their Head-to-Head and Gold medal winner at the Tokyo Olympics, where Osaka became the first tennis player to light the Olympic cauldron during an opening ceremony (only to suffer a disappointing third round loss to Marketa Vondrousova, a few days later).

Set 1: Muchova’s widespread superiority

For the first 30 minutes of the AO second round match played on KIA Arena, Muchova certainly looked on fire. Dominating with her serve, forehand and netplay, she raced to a 5-0 lead and closed a flawless set of tennis with a dropvolley winner.

The Czech concluded the opener with 7 more winners, pressed Osaka into 8 more forced errors and only saw 10 of 17 (59%) 1st serves returned into play.

Set 1 key stats

• Winners: Muchova 11 / Osaka 4

• Forced Errors: Muchova 4 / Osaka 12

• Unreturned 1st serves: Muchova 41% / Osaka 27%

At the net, Muchova was near perfect, winning 6 of 7 points (86%).

She was also the superior player from the back of the court, finishing the set with a 56% baseline win-rate (against Osaka’s 41%) and with a 1-point edge in baseline duels (12 to 11).

→ In the first set, Muchova hit 3 volley winners. Each one had its artistry and singularity: a jump volley, a delicate half-volley and a dropvolley on the stretch to close the set.