Muchova vs Gauff: Beijing Final Analysis (WTA 1000)

In a scorching performance, Gauff won 85% of 1st serve points and 33 of 42 baseline duels while making just 2 forehand unforced errors

There is something about Karolina Muchova that brings the best out of Coco Gauff.

There is something within Gauff that brings the best out of her in championship matches.

Gauff delivered a flawless performance in the China Open final to defeat Muchova 6-1, 6-3 and lift her career record in finals to 8-1. A result that allowed Gauff to become the first player in the Open era to triumph in each of her first seven WTA hardcourt finals.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Muchova dropped to 1-5 in Tour finals, with Seoul 2019 persisting as her single tournament win to date.

source: China Open / WTA Tour

On the day Gauff claimed her 8th career title, 8 was her magical number:

• 8 unforced errors for the whole match

• only missed 8 forehands and 8 backhands

• made just 8 errors in each set, apart from double faults

On top of such remarkable error control, Gauff fired 25 winners to add a second WTA 1000 title to her 2023 Cincinnati triumph, where she also beat Muchova in the final. Their Head-to-Head now stands at 3-0 for Gauff and Muchova is yet to win a set.

A recurrent theme in all of their meetings has been Gauff finishing with a better winners-to-unforced errors differential. In the China Open final, the American was +17 for a massive 27-point advantage over Muchova’s -10.

Gauff wins pretty when she faces Muchova.

Winners-to-Unforced Errors

Cincinnati 2023

• Gauff +2 = 16 winners / 14 UFEs 

• Muchova -12 = 20 winners / 32 UFEs

US Open 2023

• Gauff -12 = 13 winners / 25 UFEs    

• Muchova -21 = 15 winners / 36 UFEs

Beijing 2024

• Gauff +17 = 25 winners / 8 UFEs 

• Muchova -10 = 14 winners / 24 UFEs

1. Gauff’s Serve Performance

Gauff enjoyed one of her most solid serving performances of the season.

She started the Beijing final with an ace, then clinched her first 3 serve games without dropping a point.

Until the end, she was masterful behind 1st serves, winning 85% (28/33) while making 70% (33/47).

Overall, Gauff won 72% of serve points and hit more aces than double faults (6 to 5). She was taken to Deuce only twice in 8 serve games and broken a single time, in her first serve game of the second set.

A puzzling aspect of Gauff’s loss to Emma Navarro at the US Open was how, instead of rolling in some slower serves to counter her serving woes, Gauff finished that match with higher 1st and 2nd serve average speeds in comparison to previous rounds.

This time however, it was evident how careful Gauff was in making 1st serves immediately after a double fault and/or when facing a break point (3 of 4 break points Gauff faced were preceded by double faults).

As evidenced by the table below, Gauff slowed down her 1st serves so much on those occasions that some were even slower than the preceding missed 2nd serve. But they were all in, even if landing short (see video). For Gauff, a 1st serve made meant it was one less problem to deal with.

📺source: WTA Tv

→ all 6 1st serves Gauff hit on break points and/or after serving a double fault

You may notice these were all AD side points (all 5 Gauff double faults were to the Deuce side).

When serving to the AD side, Gauff was unstoppable:

• made 22 of 23 (96%) 1st serves

• won 20 of 23 (87%) points, including 19/22 behind 1st serves and 1/1 behind 2nd serves.

If a large portion of the big points in a tennis match are Ad side points, Gauff made sure she would win most of them.

2. Backhand vs Forehand

One of the problems for Muchova in this matchup seems to be how she bigtime targets Gauff’s forehand but then gets trapped in backhand vs forehand exchanges that end up hurting her.