Navarro vs Gauff: US Open Fourth Round Analysis

Navarro’s relentless pressure on the forehand and Gauff's serving struggles

For the second straight Major, Coco Gauff was ousted in the Fourth Round by Emma Navarro.

source: US Open twitter

Navarro deserves credit for hitting almost twice more winners (20 to 11), defending her 2nd serve very well (66% 2nd serve points won) and for executing a gameplan that fueled Gauff’s current doubts.

However, it must be highlighted that the demise of the defending champion was very much self-inflicted. Gauff made only 46% of 1st serves. She finished with 19 double faults and 57 unforced errors. At -46, Gauff’s differential between winners and unforced errors was 32 points worse than Navarro’s -14.

1. Navarro’s Gameplan: relentless pressure on Gauff’s forehand

At Wimbledon, the story of the match was how Gauff gradually lost confidence in her forehand. By the end, she had accumulated 32 forehand errors in 17 games, almost 2 per game, including 4 when Navarro served for the match at 5-3 in the 2nd set.

So it was no surprise that Navarro’s gameplan for their US Open rematch was to test Gauff’s forehand whenever possible. It resulted in Navarro making Gauff hit a forehand in 68% of 1st serve returns (39/57), 26 of 27 (96%) 2nd serve returns and 58% of groundstrokes.

Gauff’s forehand hit frequency

• 1st serve returns : 68% (39/57)

• 2nd serve returns: 96% (26/27)

• Rally shots: 58% (143/246)

Serving to the forehand was a winning strategy.

Navarro won 72% (28/39) of 1st serves to the forehand and her win-rate dropped to 56% (10/18) when serving to the backhand.

In addition, after directing all but one of her 2nd serves to Gauff’s forehand, Navarro won 66% (19/29) of 2nd serve points. Not only is this well above Tour average, it nearly equalled her overall win-rate behind 1st serves in this match (67%). For Navarro, exclusively targeting Gauff’s forehand with her 2nd serves was like having two cracks at a 1st serve.