Pegula vs Kalinskaya: Berlin Final Analysis (WTA 500)
Jessie No. 5 - Pegula saved 5 match points, then won the last 5 points of the deciding set tie-break to claim her 5th career Tour title.
cover 📸 credit: Wimbledon twitter
After missing the european clay-court swing with a rib injury, world #5 Jessica Pegula conquered her 5th career trophy in Berlin. The title arrived in Pegula’s 5th match win of her comeback (6th overall match, following 2 months out of the Tour) and required a few heroics — five times Anna Kalinskaya stood one point away from a first career title.
Pegula saved 4 match points serving at 4-5 in the third set and another one at 5-6. It was a complete reversal of what had happened until that moment: Kalinskaya had been 6-for-7 on break points, breaking serve in all 6 return games she reached break point.
But Pegula was clutch staring at defeat. And then she prevailed in the final set tie-break by winning the last 5 points of the match.
Kalinskaya’s unconverted match points ended up reflecting key match factors.
1. Backhand Errors
MP #1 (4-5 15/40) → Kalinskaya backhand error after 5 shots
With both players generating most of their offense from the forehand side, limiting errors became the main goal for backhands.
In that regard, Pegula was the clear winner. She missed 28 backhands,17 less than Kalinskaya’s 45 backhand errors.
Forehand Performance
Pegula = 16 winners + 17 forcing shots / 43 errors
Kalinskaya = 27 winners + 23 forcing shots / 38 errors
Backhand Performance
Pegula = 8 winners + 9 forcing shots / 28 errors
Kalinskaya = 11 winners + 9 forcing shots / 45 errors
2. Unreturned Serves
MP #2 (4-5 30/40) → unreturned wide AD serve
MP #5 (5-6 30/40) → unreturned T AD serve
Pegula had the edge in the serve/return dynamic.
Despite making only 70 1st serves compared to 85 by Kalinskaya, Pegula delivered 14 more unreturned 1st serves (25 vs 11).
Pegula hit 7 aces and another 18 1st serves that Kalinskaya had a racquet on but failed to return into court. Kalinskaya only managed 2 aces and 9 other 1st serves that ended on return errors from Pegula.
Pegula
25 unreturned 1st serves (7 aces)
7 unreturned 2nd serves
Kalinskaya
11 unreturned 1st serves (2 aces)
9 unreturned 2nd serves
3. Kalinskaya’s forehand unforced errors
MP #3 (4-5 40/AD) → Kalinskaya forehand error after 7 shots
Pegula’s match point (6-6 6:3) → Kalinskaya forehand error after 3 shots
Kalinskaya amassed 22 forehand unforced errors.
The majority of those errors (15 in total) were made from a central area of the baseline (marked by the blue circe in the right panel in the image below).
