Raducanu vs Sakkari: Wimbledon Third Round Analysis

Short points, forehand performance and break points: the decisive factors to Raducanu's win over Sakkari

cover 📸 credit: WTA Tour twitter

For the second time in a Major, Emma Raducanu defeated Maria Sakkari for the loss of five games. Just like it happened in the 2021 US Open semi-final, Raducanu saved all 7 break points faced and did not drop serve.

This time around, Raducanu served well (76% 1st serves made, 71% 1st serves won), returned magnificently and was very solid from the back of the court. With near-perfect shot selection throughout the match, Raducanu mixed aggressive flat drives with slices and loopy, defensive shots. By barely missing, she was able to capitalize on Sakkari’s unforced errors — 26 in total, 16 more than Raducanu’s 10.

Each point is considered only once. Therefore, aces are not included in winner totals and double faults are not included in unforced error totals.

Our match analysis will focus on the following key factors:

1. Short points

2. Forehand performance

3. Break points

1. Short Points

Raducanu dominated points of 4 or less shots in the court, building a massive 20-point (53-33) advantage.

This sizable gap had 2 distinct sources:

A. Raducanu’s aggression and high-quality on serves and returns

B. Sakkari’s errors on “+1s”

A. Raducanu’s aggression and high-quality on serves and returns

Raducanu collected 16 points off winning serves. And she neutralized 10 return errors by hitting exactly 10 winning returns.

While Sakkari had an inferior serving performance (11 winning serves with 6 double faults), the most glaring differences to Raducanu were seen on her return numbers. Sakkari’s 3 winning returns were very far from countering 17 return errors.

Overall, on points decided by serves and returns, Raducanu was +13, markedly better than Sakkari’s -9.

Serve and Return Performance

Raducanu

• plus/minus = +13

  ✅ Aces: 3

  ✅ Serves forcing an error: 13

  ✅ Return winners: 4

  ✅ Returns forcing an error: 6

  ❌ Double Faults: 3

  ❌ Return forced errors: 9

  ❌ Return unforced errors: 1

Sakkari

• plus/minus = -9

  ✅ Aces: 2

  ✅ Serves forcing an error: 9

  ✅ Return winners: 1

  ✅ Returns forcing an error: 2

  ❌ Double Faults: 6

  ❌ Return forced errors: 13

  ❌ Return unforced errors: 4

B. Sakkari’s errors on “+1s”

With Raducanu serving and returning so efficiently, Sakkari couldn’t afford a subpar “+1s” performance. But, on top of 6 “serve+1” forced errors, she accumulated 7 “serve+1” unforced errors and 6 more on “return+1s”.

Raducanu made 10 unforced errors in the whole match, Sakkari accumulated 13 unforced errors just on “+1s”!