Rybakina vs Sabalenka: Madrid SF Analysis

From blowout to instant classic

cover 📸 credit: WTA Tour twitter

The lopsided first set turned out to be a soft-flavoured appetizer. It was followed by an exquisite main course.

Ultimately, only a final set tiebreak could decide the 9th meeting between Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka won it by a 1-6 7-5 7-6 (7:5) score to improve her H-2-H record against Rybakina to 6-3, and set up a repeat final in Madrid. For the second consecutive year, the event will host a title decision between the top-2 players in the world, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.

While we await such enthralling final, let’s recap the action between Rybakina and Sabalenka.

Each point is considered only once. Therefore, aces are not included in winner totals and double faults are not included in unforced error totals.

Set 1 — Rybakina’s trap

Their previous match in 2024, in the Brisbane final, was a beating (read here). Rybakina blew Sabalenka off the court with fast and explosive tennis. In a mighty impressive display, 53% of points won by Rybakina only required a single racquet swing from her. It was either a serve or a return and the ball would not come back.

Given how Rybakina talked about her physical condition in Madrid, after a title run in Stuttgart and on the back of a miraculous escape the day before against Yulia Putintseva that included recovering from 2-5 down in the decider and saving 2 match points, expectations were Rybakina’s only option was to come up with another explosive exhibition filled with short points.

Reality trumped expectations.

Rybakina began the match putting a little extra spin on serves and hitting rock-solid groundstrokes. Her gameplan looked like it was to outlast Sabalenka.

On the other side of the net, Sabalenka was enjoying a slow start and not dealing well with Rybakina’s surprising patience. Once Sabalenka surrendered the first break, in the 4th game, with a couple of double faults and followed it with a missed break point in the next game, her frustration skyrocketed.