Rybakina vs Sabalenka: Madrid SF Analysis
From blowout to instant classic
cover 📸 credit: WTA Tour twitter
The lopsided first set turned out to be a soft-flavoured appetizer. It was followed by an exquisite main course.
Ultimately, only a final set tiebreak could decide the 9th meeting between Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka won it by a 1-6 7-5 7-6 (7:5) score to improve her H-2-H record against Rybakina to 6-3, and set up a repeat final in Madrid. For the second consecutive year, the event will host a title decision between the top-2 players in the world, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.
While we await such enthralling final, let’s recap the action between Rybakina and Sabalenka.
Set 1 — Rybakina’s trap
Their previous match in 2024, in the Brisbane final, was a beating (read here). Rybakina blew Sabalenka off the court with fast and explosive tennis. In a mighty impressive display, 53% of points won by Rybakina only required a single racquet swing from her. It was either a serve or a return and the ball would not come back.
Given how Rybakina talked about her physical condition in Madrid, after a title run in Stuttgart and on the back of a miraculous escape the day before against Yulia Putintseva that included recovering from 2-5 down in the decider and saving 2 match points, expectations were Rybakina’s only option was to come up with another explosive exhibition filled with short points.
Reality trumped expectations.
Rybakina began the match putting a little extra spin on serves and hitting rock-solid groundstrokes. Her gameplan looked like it was to outlast Sabalenka.
On the other side of the net, Sabalenka was enjoying a slow start and not dealing well with Rybakina’s surprising patience. Once Sabalenka surrendered the first break, in the 4th game, with a couple of double faults and followed it with a missed break point in the next game, her frustration skyrocketed.