Swiatek vs Pegula: US Open Quarter-Final Analysis

With exceptional depth on her shots, Pegula won three times more medium rallies and a ticket to a first Major semi-final

Jessica Pegula knocked out top-seed Iga Swiatek to finally advance to her first Major semi-final. After 6 previous losses, including 2 to Swiatek in 2022 at Roland Garros and the US Open, Pegula’s quarter-final drought ended at the seventh time of asking.

source: WTA Tour twitter

“I just kept losing, but to great players, I mean, to girls that went on and won the tournament. I know everyone kept asking me about it, but I was like, I don’t know what else to do. I just need to get there again and, like, win the match. So thank God I was able to do it. And finally, finally, I can say semi-finalist.”

— Jessica Pegula, on-court interview

For Pegula’s big night on Ashe Stadium, these were the key factors:

1. Great attitude going in (past failures were blocked)

2. Dream 4-0 start, capitalizing on Swiatek’s early serving struggles

3. Consistent depth, even on running/defensive groundstrokes

4. Massive superiority once she made Swiatek hit a 3rd shot

5. Collect on Swiatek’s unforced errors after persistently fueling her frustration

There is no doubt Pegula’s play left Swiatek rattled and impatient. The following numbers illustrate it.

• Swiatek finished with 41 unforced errors, a total that made up 63% of the points won by Pegula (41/65). In comparison, Pegula hit 23 unforced errors and Swiatek won 49 total points.

  

• A large portion of Swiatek’s unforced errors occurred in her 3rd or 4th shots.

  As a result, Pegula built a jaw-dropping 17-point advantage (25-8) in medium rallies.

Pegula’s success started in her ability to focus just on the opponent and block past failures. At the post-match press conference, Pegula downplayed her much-publicized streak of six straight losses at Major quarter-finals:

"It wasn't even a me thing. It was more people asking me.”

Pegula certainly began the match with poise and confidence. Unlike Swiatek, who couldn’t find a 1st serve. In each of her first 2 serve games, Swiatek made just one 1st serve and ended up double faulting when facing break point. By contrast, Pegula faced a 0/30 deficit twice but escaped without conceding a break point opportunity.

Once Pegula had a 4-0 lead, the emotional states for the rest of the match were set.