Wimbledon: Aryna Sabalenka vs Emma Raducanu third round analysis
Deuce court 1st serves, forehands, net points and drop shots
We begin our Wimbledon analyses with the vibrating centre court duel between top seed Aryna Sabalenka (WTA #1) and local favourite Emma Raducanu (WTA #38).
A riveting match that had British fans buzzing with the possibility Raducanu might pull the upset. The 22-year old fed those hopes by:
grabbing the first break of serve of the contest on her way to a 4-2 lead
saving 7 (!!) set points at 4-5, before holding serve after more than 13 minutes and 22 points
breaking again at 5-5 to earn a chance to serve out the set
reaching set point at 6:5 in the tie-break
accruing a break point that would give her a 5-1 lead and a pair of game points for 5-2 in the second set.
Moments that enthused the home crowd but also promoted the best out of Sabalenka. The world #1 stormed back twice, producing some exquisite touch shots and taking over the net late in the first set and then winning 23 of the last 32 points and the last 5 games to triumph in straights.
Match analysis
Raducanu dominated early on by outplaying Sabalenka from the forehand wing.
The Brit reached a 4-2 lead after striking 5 winning forehands and taking 10 of the first 14 medium-length rallies.
Forehand Performances, first 6 games
Sabalenka: 2 winners & 1 forcing / 6 unforced errors
Raducanu: 3 winners & 2 forcing / 4 unforced errors
Sabalenka was also a bit erratic off the forehand side in the opening stages — including 3 misses in the 5th game to concede the first break of the match — but gradually cut down errors.
Meanwhile, Raducanu made 3 “serve+1” unforced errors during a rare poor game at 4-3 and the lead was gone.
Two games later, Raducanu was serving to stay in the set. Prior to the 4-5 30/30 point, her Deuce court 1st serve strategy had been clear and working fine (orange circle, on the right side):
served wide in 90% of 1st serves landed (9 of 10)
won 78% of points started with a wide 1st serve (7 of 9)
But from 4-5 30/30, Sabalenka won 3 straight Deuce court points started by Raducanu wide sliders.
Emma eventually held for 5-5 — reminder that it took 7 set point saves — but her Deuce side struggles during that game prompted her to change serve patterns for the rest of the set.
So when she served to that court half at 6-5 and during the tie-break, she always went down the middle targeting body-backhand. Unfortunately for her, it was a switch that resulted in a low 25% win-rate (1 of 4), failure to serve out the set at 6-5 and a tie-break loss.
By contrast, Sabalenka’s late-set adjustments had a positive effect in her first set success.