WTA1000 Indian Wells: Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva final analysis
How the self-described brat defeated the world #1 to take over Tennis Paradise
Mirra Andreeva (WTA #9) arrived in California for the BNP Paribas Open as the most recent WTA 1000 champion, fresh off a title in Dubai that set a couple of precocity records and left the tennis world on notice.
Wins didn’t slow down for the 17-year old as she made a seamless transition to the slower hardcourts at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Embarking on another sensational run, Andreeva grabbed the headlines once again with a trio of impressive victories over players she had also beaten in the Middle-East. First, it was the ruthless way she dismantled Clara Tauson and Elena Rybakina for the loss of just 3 games in each contest. Later, it was the poise and mental fortitude beyond her teenage years displayed in the third set to upset Iga Swiatek for the second straight tournament, after losing a very one-sided second set.
To clinch consecutive WTA 1000 titles and set new milestones, Andreeva would have to beat the Top-2 players in the world back-to-back as Aryna Sabalenka (WTA #1) awaited in the title decider. Considering their head-to-head record, this was probably the biggest challenge Andreeva could face. The teenager had only won 1 of their previous 5 meetings, last year at the French Open and when Sabalenka seemed ill; otherwise, Sabalenka prevailed with relative ease.
Two of those convincing wins from the world #1 were obtained on hardcourts during the first month of the 2025 season: a 6-3, 6-2 triumph in the Brisbane semis (1h29’) and an even shorter 6-1, 6-2 win in the fourth round at the Australian Open (1h02’).
On both occasions, Sabalenka accumulated more winners (a combined total of 41 to 33) and fewer unforced errors (33 to 44) for a positive differential (+8 vs -11) while Andreeva failed to break Sabalenka’s serve a single time despite accruing 11 break point chances.
Break point conversion in their 2025 meetings
Sabalenka 58% (7-for-12)
Andreeva: 0% (0-for-11)
The early part of the Indian Wells final must have felt like a painful déjà vu for Andreeva as she wasted a 0/30 advantage in the opening game and didn’t convert any of her 4 break point opportunities created at 1-1.
→ Andreeva’s missed break points at 1-1
📺 source: WTA Tv
The follow-up was the worst possible for Andreeva as she was broken to love in the next game.
→ Andreeva made a bad forehand error in the first point. Then Sabalenka strung 3 winners (baseline, drop shot and approach) to secure a love break
Once Sabalenka grabbed a break lead, she dominated. At the end of the first set, the world #1 had more winners, fewer unforced and forced errors (9 to 6, 10 to 11 and 5 to 12, respectively), a 17-10 advantage in baseline duels and a 75% win-rate at the net (6-for-8).
Frustrated, Andreeva sent a ball into the stands immediately after dropping serve a second time to lose the opener.
The scenario for an escalating negative mindset was there for the teenager as she started the second set in much the same way, missing 3 more break points in the opening game to go 0-for-7 on the match and 0-for-18 against Sabalenka on the season.
→ Andreeva’s missed break points in the first game of set 2
But just like she did against Swiatek, Andreeva showed massive mental strength at a crucial stage of the match. Instead of dwelling on her missed chances, the teenager reacted with 2 aces and an additional pair of winning serves for a big hold. Then she began the third game with a forceful return that paved the way for another 15/40 lead and 2 more break points.
That’s when Andreeva blasted this forehand return winner down the line to finally break Sabalenka’s serve, on her 8th break point of the match (and 19th of the season).
It was the moment that unchained Andreeva and altered the path of the BNP Paribas Open final.
[Below the paywall you will find out the distinctive features of sets 2 & 3, read players’ post-match reactions and be able to explore extensive match data that, as usual, is shared in our last section. Unlock all by becoming a premium subscriber. Thank you for your support! TIN]