WTA1000 Madrid: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff final analysis
Sabalenka's odd title number 3 in Madrid and Gauff's paradoxical forehand performance
Aryna Sabalenka (WTA #1) defeated Coco Gauff (WTA #4) 6-3, 7-6 [7:3] in the 2025 WTA 1000 Mutua Madrid Open final to add a third champion’s trophy to her 2021 and 2023 conquistas in the Spanish capital.
It could be argued that Sabalenka is repeating her odd-year script — triumphed in Madrid yet again, just as she was a losing finalist at WTA 500 Stuttgart in the last 3 odd years or started each of those seasons with a title — but a lot is unique about Sabalenka's 2025.
With an 86% win-rate so far this season (31-5 record), the world #1 has reached the final in 6 of 8 events played, claimed 3 titles, accumulated a career-high 11,118 ranking points and stretched her lead at the top of the WTA Tour rankings to a massive 4,345 points over #2 Iga Swiatek.
Here’s another impressive Sabalenka stat: against Top-10 opponents this season, she is 6-0 and yet to drop a set!
Sabalenka’s win in the Madrid final meant Gauff’s win-streak in championship matches ended at 7. The 21-year old American hadn’t lost a title decider since the 2022 French Open. She is now 1-2 in finals on clay but remains undefeated in 8 career hardcourt finals.
Despite her runner-up finish, there were plenty of positives for Gauff to take from her two weeks in Madrid. She reached her first final of the season, improved to 3-0 against Mirra Andreeva after leaving the teenager without solutions from the closing stages of the first set and finally beat Iga Swiatek on clay, grabbing that first win on the red dirt by a resounding 6-1, 6-1 score.
Match analysis
Right after missing a break point in the opening game of the Madrid final, Sabalenka erupted for a sublime run of 17 straight points won that left her with a commanding 4-1 lead and featured, among other big shots, 3 return winners.
→ Sabalenka blasted 3 return winners while grabbing back-to-back love breaks
📺 source: WTA Tv
Breakdown of Sabalenka’s 17 consecutive points won
4 winning serves
3 return winners
2 net winners
1 groundstroke winner + 2 forcing groundstrokes
5 Gauff unforced errors (2 double faults, 2 returns, 1 groundstroke)
The match became competitive once Gauff slowed down Sabalenka in the 6th game. It wasn’t enough to reverse the outcome of the first set but made the action a lot more even after that.
Prior to the Madrid final, we posted a note on the Substack app urging you to keep a close eye on the following key factors:
Gauff’s returns in play
Long rallies
“+1” performances
Just as it happened in their previous meeting at the 2024 Riyadh WTA Finals, they were once again decisive.
More on their 2024 Riyadh match here:
1. Gauff’s returns in play
Gauff barely missed any returns against Sabalenka in Riyadh, getting back into court 86% and 90% of 1st and 2nd serves faced, respectively.
This time however, her returning numbers fell off dramatically. The American managed to return into play 70% of Sabalenka’s 1st serves and just 56% of 2nd serves.
Coco Gauff returns made
vs 1st serves: 28 of 40 (70%)
vs 2nd serves: 11 of 18 (56%)
Not only did Gauff only make 11 of 18 2nd serve returns, most of her 7 errors occurred during crucial stages of the second set and erased significant opportunities.
When Sabalenka was serving to stay in the set at 3-5 and failing to land 1st serves, Gauff offered some breathing room by missing a pair of 2nd serve forehand returns.
Two games later, Gauff wasted an even bigger chance by allowing a 0/30 lead to slip away with 3 more missed 2nd serve forehand returns in a 4-point span.
While those were Gauff’s last 2nd serve return errors of the match, the fate of the final was sealed when Sabalenka delivered a pair of unreturned 1st serves from 4:3 in the second tie-break. The match ended on the following point as Gauff double-faulted.
In Madrid, Sabalenka’s decision to go after Gauff’s forehand return paid off. The world #1 won 69% of points started with a 1st serve directed to Gauff’s forehand against 63% when serving to the backhand.
1st serves won
Sabalenka
to FH: 69% (20/29)
to BH: 63% (7/11)
Gauff
to FH: 59% (13/22)
to BH: 54% (13/24)
Sabalenka’s ability to win 14 of 17 (82%) Deuce side wide 1st serves (marked by green circle below) was an obvious attention-grabber as she had only gone 3-for-15 (20%) in Riyadh. Quite a turnaround!
Here is another telling stat: Sabalenka won 90% of 2nd serve points (9/10) when she had Gauff hitting a forehand return.
Otherwise, all other 2nd serve points were split in a near 1:1 ratio.
2nd serves won
Sabalenka
to FH: 90% (9/10)
to BH: 50% (3/6)
Gauff
to FH: 55% (11/20)
to BH: 50% (10/20)
These absolutely crushing numbers bring us to the "Gauff's paradoxical forehand performance“ subtitle comment.
It is undeniable that Gauff’s struggles to land forehand returns or win points after doing it played a huge role in deciding the outcome.