WTA1000 Rome: Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng quarter-final analysis
Dissecting Zheng's first career win over Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka (WTA #1) and Qinwen Zheng (WTA #8) are the highest ranked players in the first quarter of the Roland Garros women’s draw. The same happened just a few days ago in Rome, where the world #1 and the Olympic champion justified their seedings and met in the last-8.
Recent form and past matchup history made Sabalenka the overwhelming favourite for that match. Coming off a title in Madrid and riding a 9-match win streak, the Belarusian also brought a 6-0 career record against Zheng and had lost just 1 of 13 sets played between them. The sort of domination that earned Sabalenka the label “The mountain that Zheng is yet to overcome” during last year's Wuhan Open.
Despite 6 unsuccessful hardcourt battles with Sabalenka, Zheng remained confident in her game and relished the challenge of facing the world #1 on clay for the first time.
"She's in a great form, and is the most consistent player, so far, on the Tour this year. I am looking forward to playing her on clay, though. Each surface requires a different style, and I'd really like to gauge my game on clay against her. Maybe I need to push harder in my 1st serve, trying wider, and, perhaps riskier, angles to dictate the play."
— Qinwen Zheng, previewing the Rome quarter-final
It turned out to be a perfect surface change for Zheng as she finally “escalated” Sabalenka at the seventh attempt.
In addition to an untouchable performance behind her 1st serve — won 28 of 34 points, 82% — Zheng had 3 other key factors contributing decisively to end her drought in the rivalry:
Mental comfort from leading the score for first time
Return position and performance
Down the line groundstrokes
We discuss these factors in detail and share our usual data set below the paywall, so please continue reading by becoming a paid subscriber. We have a special Roland Garros offer waiting for you!
1. Mental comfort from leading the score for first time
Before Rome, Zheng had never been a break up in any of her 6 opening sets played against Sabalenka, or during the deciding set of their only match that went the distance, in Wuhan.
But the Chinese had always conceded at least one break between her first and third serve games of each match. A trend that left her constantly under score pressure, forced to play catch up not long after the first balls were hit.
Zheng’s earliest serve games lost to Sabalenka
US Open 2023: 1st & 2nd games
Australian Open 2024: 1st game
US Open 2024: 1st & 2nd games
Wuhan 2024: 3rd game; also 1st & 2nd games in set 3
Riyadh 2024: 3rd game
Miami 2025: 2nd, 3rd & 4th games