2024 WTA Finals: Day 6 Analysis
Featured match: Gauff vs Krejcikova. How Krejcikova was the only player in Riyadh capable of winning the forehand battle against Gauff
Jessica Pegula’s withdrawal (left knee injury) prior to the third round of matches in the Orange group meant the following scenarios for the last day: if Barbora Krejcikova defeated Coco Gauff, both would reach the semi-finals; otherwise, it would be Gauff and Iga Swiatek advancing.
Featured Match — Day 6
#3 Coco Gauff vs #8 Barbora Krejcikova
H-2-H: Krejcikova led 1-0
Only meeting: Krejcikova 7-6 (8-6) 6-3 — 2021 Roland Garros QF, clay
Krejcikova made a relentless attack on Gauff’s forehand and it paid off as forehand errors were the ultimate difference-makers on the day.
Gauff missed 44 forehands while Krejcikova had 19 forehand errors. That gave the Wimbledon champion a 25-point advantage, largely exceeding her final winning margin of 11 points (79-68).
1. Krejcikova made Gauff hit forehand after forehand
Krejcikova forced Gauff to hit a forehand over 70% of the time, right from the point’s first ball.
Krejcikova targeted Gauff’s forehand in 70% of 1st serves and 77% of 2nd serves. In addition, the Czech also directed most of her returns to Gauff’s Deuce court, making the American strike a forehand in 72% of “serve+1s”.
Such pattern was kept during rallies as, in total, Gauff hit a forehand in 106 of her 147 rallying groundstrokes (72%).
Gauff Forehand hit % per shot
Returns vs 1st srv: 70% forehands (35 FHs / 15 BHs)
Returns vs 2nd srv: 77% forehands (24 FHs / 7 BHs)
“Serve+1”: 72% forehands (23 FHs / 9 BHs)
“Return+1”: 77% forehands (36 FHs / 11 BHs)
Rallying groundstrokes (excludes returns): 72% forehands (106 FHs / 41 BHs)
Total: 73% forehands (167 FHs / 63 BHs)
It is public that Gauff’s forehand has faultered in the past. But that does not mean it is unable to hold up when under attack.
In fact, apart from Krejcikova, Gauff outplayed all her other WTA Finals opponents from the forehand side. Twice, she even managed to build double-digit advantages: in her second career win over Swiatek (+12) and in the championship match against Qinwen Zheng (+18).
So, what characterized Krejcikova’s performance?
Along with her usual game variety, Krejcikova challenged Gauff’s rhythm by stepping inside the court to take the ball early. This strategy rushed Gauff, pushed her back and showed any shots lacking depth would be punished.
2. Krejcikova took time away from Gauff
A. Krejcikova adopted a more aggressive return stance
The Czech stood close to the baseline against 1st serves and was inside the court to strike 2nd serve returns.
By contrast, Gauff remained well behind the baseline when returning.
B. Krejcikova’s shots were more direct
Krejcikova's mix of flatter groundstrokes and occasional slices meant her shots had a lower average net clearance. So they carried less height and reached the target in less time.
C. Krejcikova was eager to take balls on the rise
Krejcikova was very active in stepping inside the court and striking balls still on their ascendent trajectory. Over and over again, she attacked Gauff’s shots that fell short.
Here are a few examples.
📺 source: WTA Tv
All of the above discussed factors combined to unsettle Gauff, especially when she had to hit forehands - which was most of the time.
It led to an impossible-to-overcome 29-point gap between forehand performances (-38 vs -9).
Forehand Performances
Gauff: 6 winners / 44 errors = -38
Krejcikova: 10 winners / 19 errors = -9
Backhand Performances
Gauff: 4 winners / 9 errors = -5
Krejcikova: 8 winners / 29 errors = -21
The distribution of Gauff’s unforced errors raises quite a few eyebrows: she had 31 from the forehand side and just 3 from the backhand side!
The difference in total errors was not as extreme but it still was very revealing. Gauff finished with 44 forehand errors and only 9 backhand errors.
3. Krejcikova saved 11 of 12 break points faced
The match outcome was also largely influenced by another major factor: break point conversion.
Krejcikova converted 3 of 4 break points, grabbing a break in every return game during which she created break point(s).
For Gauff it was the opposite, as she finished 1-for-12 on break points, breaking in just 1 of 4 return games that featured break opportunities.
Ironically, Gauff did well at first, breaking when Krejcikova served for the first set at 5-4. But the American immediately lost her serve to love and then her conversion problems started. In the 12th game, Gauff squandered 4 chances to take the set into a tie-break.
→ A compilation of Gauff’s 4 missed break points at 6-5 in set 1
In the second set, Gauff let a 15/40 lead slip away during Krejcikova’s opening serve game.
After that, there were no more break points until 4-4. Gauff double faulted at 30/30, setting up a break opportunity for Krejcikova - her only one in the second set - that she converted with a backhand winner (shown above).
Just as it happened in the opening set, Gauff had 4 chances to keep her hopes alive when Krejcikova served for the match at 5-4. But the American made a couple of tentative forehand errors in the first 2 break points and was unable to convert any.
→ A compilation of Gauff’s 4 missed break points at 5-4 in set 2
In total, Krejcikova saved the last 10 break points she faced. And when Gauff netted a forehand return to end the contest, a three-way tie at the top of the Orange Group was reached. Krejcikova, Gauff and Swiatek, all finished with a 2-1 record.
Therefore, percentage of sets won determined final group standings.
Krejcikova won the group with a 5-2 set record (71.4%), Gauff was second at 4-2 (66.7%) and Swiatek fell out of contention at 4-3 (57.1%).
Match Data - Coco Gauff vs Barbora Krejcikova
Set by Set Stats
Strategy Stats
Points Won by Rally Length
Rally Length
Winners and Errors (returns and rally shots)
Strokes Breakdown
Direction of winning shots and unforced errors (only groundstrokes)
Serve and Return
1st Serves
2nd Serves
#2 Iga Swiatek vs ALT Daria Kasatkina
H-2-H: Swiatek led 5-1
Last meeting: Swiatek 6-2 6-3 — 2022 WTA Finals Fort Worth Round Robin, hardcourt
Swiatek def. Kasatkina 6-1, 6-0
Alternate Daria Kasatkina got the nod to replace Pegula in the scheduled match against Swiatek.
Kasatkina had averaged fewer than four games won per match while losing her last 5 meetings against Swiatek, all played during the 2022 season.
In Riyadh, after a single winner and 36 errors, Kasatkina was even far from reaching that less-than-stellar average.
Swiatek was in full control from start to finish, conceding just one game and winning 51 of 74 points played to complete a 51-minute triumph.
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers