Danilovic vs Dolehide: Guangzhou Final Analysis (WTA 250)
Danilovic ended a 6-year quest for a second Tour title with an array of forehand winners
At the start of the month, every one of Olga Danilovic’s 8 titles and 12 finals, across all pro levels, had been on clay. On hardcourts, she had never gone past the quarter-finals, reached in a couple of WTA 125s.
But all of that changed in a 3-week span.
First, the 23-year-old Serbian captured a maiden hardcourt title at ITF W100 Barcelona without dropping a set. Then she kept on winning, even after an intercontinental trip to Guangzhou. Extending her unbeaten run all the way to 10 matches, Danilovic secured back-to-back hardcourt titles and, of greater significance, brought an end to a 6-year quest for a second career WTA Tour trophy that joined her 2018 triumph in Moscow, as a 17-year-old lucky-loser.
Danilovic clinched the title with a dominant, all-court performance against qualifier Caroline Dolehide in the Guangzhou Open final.
With classic lefty, slice serves and hooking, crosscourt forehands, Danilovic put a lot of pressure on Dolehide’s backhand. It resulted in 6 missed returns from the AD court alley and 8 backhand unforced errors, all hit from close to the AD court sideline (yellow and orange circles, respectively).
The combination of Danilovic’s lefty patterns targeting Dolehide’s backhand and the American’s natural tendency to seek run-around forehands created openings in Dolehide’s forehand corner that Danilovic also explored with tremendous efficiency.
→ a couple of Danilovic forehand winners during the opening set
📺source: WTA Tv
→ Danilovic continued to target Dolehide’s forehand corner in the second set. On-the-rise, short backswing or high-bouncer, Danilovic hit them all with aplomb.
On down-the-line or inside-out forehand groundstrokes - shots directed towards Dolehide’s Deuce court/forehand side - Danilovic accumulated 9 winning shots with 0 unforced errors (marked by blue and green boxes). That’s how flawless her performance was!
Overall, Danilovic struck 15 forehand groundstroke winners with just 3 unforced errors.
Her +2 differential from 15 winners and 13 total errors off the forehand wing was 16 points better than Dolehide’s -14.
Forehand Return & Groundstroke Performance
Danilovic: 15 winners / 13 errors = +2
Dolehide: 8 winners / 22 errors = -14
Backhand Return & Groundstroke Performance
Danilovic: 4 winners / 15 errors = -11
Dolehide: 0 winners / 15 errors = -15
In addition to an impressive forehand performance, Danilovic was able to neutralize two of Dolehide’s weapons: serve and net play.
Dolehide favours kick serves that usually guarantee a high percentage of 1st serves made, give her more time to get to the net on serve and volley attempts and force returners to high-contact points.
While Dolehide made 81% of 1st serves (48/59) in the Guangzhou final, she barely won more than 50% of points (25/48).
Danilovic’s height and long reach worked as the perfect antidote against Dolehide’s high-bouncing serves. As a result, the Serbian fired 2 return winners and 5 other returns that forced “serve+1” errors from Dolehide.
→ Despite being pulled wide, Danilovic came up with consecutive returns that extracted “serve+1” errors, to take the lead for good in set 2
Forecourt numbers were also very revealing.
Danilovic played almost as many net points as Dolehide, 10 compared to 11, and did a lot better.
While the Serbian won 60% of forward moves, Dolehide was limited to a 38% win-rate in net approaches and a single volley winner, hit when Danilovic was already holding championship point.
Net Points won
Danilovic: 6-for-10 (60%)
Dolehide: 3-for-11 (38%)
Overall, Danilovic finished with a massive 53-30 advantage in rallies played. Up front or at the back, she was unstoppable.
Unstoppable but moving up as Danilovic’s perfect 10-0 record in October has taken her to #52 in the WTA rankings, an improvement of more than 30 places in comparison to her previous career-high.
Olga Danilovic (WTA #86) vs Caroline Dolehide (WTA #100, qualifier)
2024 Guangzhou Final - Match Data
Set by Set Stats
Points Won by Rally Length
Rally Length
Winners and errors (returns and rally shots)
Serve and Return
1st Serves
2nd Serves
Return & rallying performance
Points won breakdown
This final section gives a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers