Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys: Australian Open fourth round analysis

Keys was unplayable on serve in the first set and finished the job with a monstrous returning display at the tail end of the third set

📸 cover source: WTA Tour

Madison Keys kept a superb season start rolling by fending off 6th-seed Elena Rybakina 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 to qualify for her 11th career Major quarter-final.

Coming off a title in Adelaide right before travelling to Melbourne, the American 19th-seed leads the WTA Tour with 11 wins in 2025 and will carry a 9-match unbeaten run into her last 8 meeting with 28th-seed Elina Svitolina.

Following her third round win over Dayana Yastremska, Rybakina shared some alarming words about her lower back:

“It’s not so good since it’s lower back, but hopefully we can do everything possible in these one and a half days. But for now it doesn’t seem too good, to be honest".

Early signs for Rybakina in the match against Keys were that those back issues wouldn’t hamper her as much as she feared. The Kazakh started with a comfortable serve hold and immediately created the first break chance of the contest.

Ironically, Rybakina squandered it with a backhand unforced error and fell apart.

📺 source: Eurosport / Max

Three more backhand unforced errors from the 2023 Australian Open runner-up allowed Keys to level at 1-1.

Then Rybakina made 3 consecutive forehand errors to surrender her serve in the next game.

To round out her first set struggles, Rybakina also served 5 double faults, including a couple back-to-back at the end the set. She totalled 18 unforced errors in the opening frame, a big number made even worse by Keys’ minuscule 4 unforced errors.

The American played a superb set, keeping mistakes at bay while blasting 13 winners. Once she got the lead, she became unstoppable behind her serve. With a scorching sequence that included 5 forehand winners, 1 backhand winner and 2 aces, Keys won her last 11 points on serve in the set.

Set 1 key stats

• 2nd serves won: Rybakina 29% / Keys 71%

• 0-4 shots won: Keys +1 (22-21)

• 5+ shots won: Keys +9 (13-4)

• Rybakina: 9 winners / 18 unforced errors = -9

• Keys: 13 winners / 4 unforced errors = +9

Rybakina was now facing an enormous challenge. She was playing an inspired opponent and had no comeback wins since last May. On that occasion, she made a remarkable escape against compatriot Yulia Putintseva in the WTA 1000 Madrid quarters, recovering from 2-5 down in the final set and saving 2 match points.

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Our 2025 Australian Open coverage:

Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka: Australian Open second round analysis

Emma Raducanu vs Iga Swiatek: Australian Open third round analysis

Next planned analysis:

🎾 Quarter-finals: Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa

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While Rybakina’s overall level didn’t improve much in the second set, she did serve better. Abolishing double faults completely, the 6th-seed raised her percentage of unreturned serves from 28% to 59%. Then she took advantage of Keys’ dramatic drop.

The American began the second set with 2 edgy double faults in the first 3 points, then added a couple of “serve+1” unforced errors to lose serve for the first time in the match. By the 7th point of the set, she already had 5 unforced errors, surpassing her total for the whole of the first set.