ITF W75 Prague: Destanee Aiava vs Gabriela Knutson final analysis
Knutson clinched her first ITF W75 title by dominating rallies that reached a 5th shot
Gabriela Knutson (WTA #230) outlasted Destanee Aiava (WTA #170) 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 in the final of the ITF Tour W75 Winter Prague Open to round off a very special week. The 27-year old Czech conquered the highest-level singles title of her career to date and had the satisfaction of celebrating it in front of friends and family.
With this week’s triumph, Knutson has already guaranteed a third straight season with at least one ITF title. All the more impressive when we consider she only turned pro in 2022 at age 25, after prioritizing university degrees from Syracuse University (USA) and Durham University (UK).
Following a rise to #184 in the latest WTA rankings update, Knutson is back within range for entry into Major qualifying draws. She played in all four last year — collecting a couple of heartbreaking losses in match tie-breaks along the way, first to Yuliia Starodubtseva in the final qualifying round at Melbourne after serving for the match late in the third set and then at SW19 to eventual Wimbledon sensation Lulu Sun in the second qualifying round after holding match point — but ended up missing this year’s Australian Open qualifying cut-off. The last player accepted was ranked #225 while Knutson was #234 at the entry deadline.
All part of the sport, as she shared in this blog entry:
“I spent all of this fall season absolutely panicking about defending points to make the Australian Open. I was catastrophising and constantly analysing the worst-case scenario. And guess what, this scenario did happen, and I will not make the Slam. By about 10 spots! And you know what, it does suck. The reasons why I was so nervous were 100% valid. But at the end of the day, there are more tournaments, more Slams, and more opportunities to be had. It’s not the end of the world if I don’t make one Grand Slam. There will always be the next one. That’s the beauty of this sport, but it’s not always easy to maintain that perspective”.
— from Gabriela Knutson’s blog
** If you don’t know already, Knutson is also the author of this Substack newsletter.
Unlike Knutson, Destanee Aiava played at this year’s 2025 Australian Open qualies. Her campaign all the way to the second round of the main draw got a bit more attention following Ben Rothenberg’s piece on Aiava’s vintage tennis outfits.
After finishing the 2024 season in great form (2 ITF titles in her last 4 events), Aiava was riding a 9-match winning streak when she was finally halted by Danielle Collins in a fiery three-setter that had fans booing Collins and the American delivering a viral on-court interview.
With a career-high ranking of #147 achieved more than 7 years ago in September 2017, Aiava would have eclipsed that mark with a win over Knutson. The 24-year old Australian had her run of consecutive ITF singles finals won stopped at 6, dating back to November 2022, but she will surely set a new high in the coming weeks, given how well she has been playing in 2025 and the relatively few ranking points she has to defend in the near future.
The ITF W75 Prague final began with Knutson dominating medium and long rallies. From first set points reaching a 5th shot, the Czech extracted a decisive 15-7 advantage.
→ Knutson winning a couple of exhausting rallies in the first set
In the second set, Aiava’s backhand became a lot more solid while Knutson’s forehand dropped significantly. As a result, Knutson’s advantage in 5+shot rallies almost evaporated (was cut to 9-8) while Aiava’s edge in short rallies grew from 4 points in set 1 (20-16) to 10 points in set 2 (24-14).
All of these factors led to the Australian never facing a break point in the set. By contrast, Knutson survived after saving break points in 2 of her first 3 serve games but she was not so fortunate at 3-3, conceding the only break of the frame with consecutive double faults.
Aiava’s Backhand Performance
set 1: 3 winners / 12 errors = -9
set 2: 3 winners / 5 errors = -2
Knutson’s Forehand Performance
set 1: 6 winners / 6 errors = 0
set 2: 6 winners / 15 errors = -9
So it all came down to an intense and tight third set.
Games were hard-fought: even though there were no breaks in the first 7 games, 14 Deuce points were played across 6 of those games.
Rallies were fast-paced, as evidenced below.
The first break of the set finally arrived in the 8th game following 3 “serve+1” backhand errors from Aiava.
Knutson served for the championship at 5-3 but immediately fell 0/30 behind and lost serve to 15.
The Czech got closer to victory in the following game as it was her turn to move ahead 0/30. In total, she was 2 points away from the title 5 different times during the 10th game. Remarkably, Aiava came up with a winner every single time!
→ Aiava’s 5 winners struck while defeat stood 2 points away, during the 10th game
Back level at 5-5, Knutson didn’t let the missed opportunity affect her. She raced to a 40/0 lead, then held for 6-5 with a winning serve.
Aiava had 2 game points to force a final set tie-break but Knutson erased both by moving Aiava to the forehand corner in the first and striking a line backhand winner in the second.
Aiava was again 2 points away defeat. This time however, she was unable to replicate the magic from the 10th game. Instead, she netted consecutive “serve+1” backhands, so Knutson could raise her arms in celebration.
Playing the aggressor for much of the decider, Knutson clinched the set by striking 5 more winners (16 to 11) and building a 35-25 advantage in baseline duels.
Those were very handy margins to compensate for 14 missed returns during the final set, including 6 off 2nd serves, as the Czech was a bit off-target while trying to apply pressure on Aiava, who landed just 50% of 1st serves throughout the match.
By the end of the Prague final, Knutson’s excellent win-rate at the net (83%, 10-for-12) and superior play from the back of the court (51% baseline win-rate vs 44% for Aiava) more than made up for her returning woes during the third set.
Knutson’s triumph is also associated with her ability to win medium and long rallies. The home favourite ended with a 40-28 advantage in points that lasted 5+ shots.
By contrast, Aiava had the edge in first-strike tennis. She ended the match winning 13 more points that were decided within the first 4 shots (82-69).
On a final note, we would like to point out how each player looked to end rallies through different primary options, as revealed by the groundstroke data shown below.
Aiava was intent on inflicting damage through line shots:
57% (17/30) of her winning groundstrokes were down the line
55% (17/31) of her groundstroke unforced errors occurred on line attempts
Knutson was a lot more keen on ending rallies crosscourt:
69% (24/35) of her winning groundstrokes were hit crosscourt
65% (20/31) of her groundstroke unforced errors were made on crosscourt attempts
Destanee Aiava (WTA #170) vs Gabriela Knutson (WTA #230, qualifier)
2025 Prague final - Match Data
** Match streaming on the ITF Tour website only started when the first set was already 7 games in. While we managed to find an alternative source, we ended up losing the first 5 points of the match, which are obviously missing from the stats presented below.
Set by Set Stats
Strokes Breakdown
Winners and Errors (returns and rally shots)
Serve and Return
1st Serves
2nd Serves
Return & rallying performance
Rally length
Points won breakdown
This final section gives a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers