Pegula vs Swiatek: Cancun Final Analysis (WTA Finals)
Special One-One! 11 games in a row to achieve 11 straight wins. Big title number 11. Swiatek needed a perfect finish to her season and she delivered it to secure a 2nd consecutive year-end #1 ranking.
After a few eventful and difficult days in Cancun, the Tour finale came down to a clash between the two best performers at the WTA Finals: Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek.
With two of the top returners in the game facing off, the match was previewed as a “battle of returns”. The final outcome was indeed linked to their return numbers.
Return winners / Errors
Pegula: 0 / 10 = -10
Swiatek: 1 / 3 = -2
Their divergent final balances, in particular due to Pegula’s 10 return errors, already show very distinct return performances.
Further evidence can be collected by looking at points concluded within the first 4 shots. Such analysis considers return winners and errors and also incorporates aces and points finished on serve+1 or return+1 shots (DFs were excluded).
Points on Pegula’s serve ending within the first 4 shots
Pegula: 5 points won
Swiatek: 8 points won
+3 for Swiatek
Swiatek did a masterful return job. She limited return errors (3) and denied Pegula the ability to dictate play and conclude points immediately after the serve. Swiatek achieved all this while still generating offense as she won 8 points and forged a 3-point advantage on Pegula’s serve points that lasted 4 or fewer shots.
Points on Swiatek’s serve ending within the first 4 shots
Swiatek: 18 points won
Pegula: 5 points won
+13 for Swiatek
In contrast to Swiatek’s performance, Pegula struggled with her return. She committed 10 errors, had difficulties in creating instant offense and could not avoid being vulnerable to serve+1 attacks by Swiatek. Out of 29 serve points won by Swiatek, 18 were either unreturned serves or serve+1 shots that did not come back. Pegula could only counter by winning 5 points with her return and return+1 shots, so Swiatek built a 13-point advantage on her serve points decided within 4 shots.
Final veredict
The “battle of returns” ended with a very one-sided win for Swiatek. Even though Pegula stepped inside the court in an attempt to hit 2nd serve returns at a comfortable height and attack, the balls still bounced too high and she could only win 31% of points on Swiatek’s 2nd serves.
Largely untroubled by Pegula’s returns, Swiatek ended up combining her superiority in the “battle of returns” with an imperial serve performance. Swiatek won 82% of 1st serve points and 69% of 2nd serve points. She was relentless in shutting the door right from the start, winning the first point in all 7 serve games and reaching a 40/0 lead on four occasions.
In the first set, a rattled Pegula (changed racquets twice) accumulated uncharacteristic errors once rallies reached 5 or 6 shots (a combined 11 points were won by Swiatek on points finishing right after the 5th or 6th shots).
For the second set, Pegula made sure she would be more consistent. As a result, average rally length increased to 5.61 shots per point (a near 2 shots increase from 3.69 in set 1).
The first two games of set 2 featured some of its longest rallies and were competitive. But once Pegula had nothing to show for it and Swiatek came out with a 2-0 lead, the match was virtually decided. Pegula was more involved in rallies but she struggled to close out points. She needed more than 3 winners and 3 forcing shots per set.
It was an overwhelming performance by Swiatek. She ruled from the baseline, coming out on top in 2 of every 3 points that had both players at the back of the court (28 vs 14). She was also a perfect 8 for 8 when advancing in the court.
Pegula’s win percentage when approaching the net was not great, at 50%, but it was a lot better than rallying from the back of the court. Pegula came forward only 6 times because Swiatek gave her very few short balls to attack.
Despite the disappointing final score, Jessica Pegula must be acknowledged for her best career week in Cancun, with wins over #1 Aryna Sabalenka, #3 Coco Gauff and #4 Elena Rybakina.
Unfortunately for Pegula, she caught Swiatek in the middle of an historic run. Indeed, Monday’s score was the most lopsided result in a final at the WTA Finals. Swiatek ended up conceding a mere 20 games in Cancun, so she also established the record for the title run with the least conceded games at the WTA Finals since the re-introduction of the Round Robin format.
All these records are even more impressive when we recall that Swiatek began her participation in Cancun struggling with 12 UFEs in the first 7 games to fall behind 2-5 against Marketa Vondrousova. Crunch time arrived in that first set and Swiatek was swift in converting her early frustration into focus, intensity, foot-work and execution. She adapted to the conditions and her form kept rising until she became unstoppable: after the 2-5 start, Swiatek finished on a remarkable run of 60 games won in 75 games played (80%).
A rejuvenated Swiatek ended 2023 on a high. She managed to end the year with 68 wins, one more than in her historic 2022 season. She also recaptured the world number 1 ranking at the very last opportunity.
“I learned my lesson and this time I didn't want [the No.1 ranking] to have an impact on me. It did a little bit - it's hard not to think about stuff like that - but actually, when I went on court, I knew that I had to focus on different things. And actually, the conditions here that were kind of tricky, also helped me to just focus on my footwork, my shots, and that just kept me busy from thinking about all of that.
Coming back to world number one, it's a dream come true, for sure. I would say I wasn't expecting that right now, this season. I was hoping that maybe next year is gonna be my year, but it seems like you know, just working hard and focusing on the right things at the end worked. So I'm really happy.”
— Iga Swiatek, from WTA website
Now we can’t wait for the 2024 season to start!
Jessica Pegula (WTA #5) vs Iga Swiatek (WTA #2)
WTA Finals Cancun - Match Data and noteworthy stats
Rally Length
Average rally length for the match was 4.65 shots per point.
Pegula’s serve points lasted on average over 2 shots more (5.88 vs 3.55 on Swiatek’s serve).
Points won by Rally Length
Swiatek dominated short (0-4) and medium (5-8) length rallies, finishing with 16-point and 14-point advantages, respectively.
Numbers were very similar between sets. Swiatek was +7 in set 1 and +9 in set 2, on short rallies. She was +8 in set 1 and +6 in set 2, on medium rallies.
Serve & Return
1st Serves
Pegula opted for body serves (in particular body backhand) on the Deuce court. On the AD court she served more down the T, to Swiatek’s FH.
Swiatek favoured serves to the FH, regardless of court side.
2nd Serves
Both players preferred body backhand 2nd serves.
On the Deuce side, Pegula used some variation by serving down the T while Swiatek opted for body forehand serves.
Rallying
Forehands dominated the match. They were more frequent (at least 60% of groundstrokes hit), produced more winners, induced more forced errors and were more targeted for rallying forced errors.
Only on UFEs were backhands more frequent (Swiatek) or equal (Pegula).
Swiatek finished with a solid 8 winners and 6 UFEs.
In contrast, Pegula’s UFE count was too high at 20, especially as she was not able to generate a single BH winner. She finished with 6 winners (5 FH groundstrokes and an overhead).
Rallying performance maps
The dominant pattern for point-winning groundstroke shots (excluding returns and volleys/overheads) was crosscourt.
Pegula hit 6 of 9 winning groundstrokes crosscourt, while Swiatek struck 7 of 12 crosscourt.
Points won breakdown
This final section gives a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Points won on winners are highlighted in violet. Points won due to opponent’s errors are highlighted in grey Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
Thumbnail photo credit: Getty Images Sport.
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.