Swiatek vs Zheng: Paris 2024 Olympics Semi-Final Analysis
How Zheng defeated Swiatek for the first time, to guarantee the first ever singles medal for China in tennis at the Olympic Games.
cover 📸 credit: WTA Tour twitter
Tennis at the Olympics is rich in epic runs and surprise results. The pursuit for medals while representing one’s country, in the biggest sporting event that takes place only once every 4 years, can be a powerful transforming force — be it as an incredible motivator or as a performance inhibitor.
The first semi-final between top-seed and strong favourite Iga Swiatek and 6th-seed Qinwen Zheng was the latest demonstration of how players felt this was no ordinary Tour match.
Despite being winless in 6 previous career meetings against Swiatek, Zheng played with great confidence on a gameplan she executed through purposeful and precise strokes.
In contrast, Swiatek was edgy from start to finish, as if she was carrying the weight of Poland on her shoulders. The world #1 was so overwhelmed by the moment that her solid backhand (which we named “the most reliable groundstroke in the world” after the match against Osaka at Roland Garros) cracked under the pressure of the moment and she was unable to build on a 4-0 lead in the second set. Two very rare events!
By the end of the match, players were separated by a massive 23-point difference in unforced errors. Swiatek accumulated 36 while Zheng racked up just 13.
With a booming serve, Zheng sealed her first career win over Swiatek, securing a 10th match win in a row while stopping Swiatek’s unbeaten run in Paris at 25 matches. Of greater significance, Zheng guaranteed the first ever singles medal for China in tennis at the Olympic Games.
1. Swiatek’s serve vs Zheng’s forehand return
On the back of off-season work, Swiatek’s serve was a major contributor to her 51-5 record this season, prior the Olympics semi-final. So influential that it was the deciding factor in the previous round match against Danielle Collins, coming through even when the rest of Swiatek’s game wasn’t in top form (as evidenced by Collins’s 42-35 advantage in baseline duels or the perfect 47-47 split of the 94 rallies played).
In our previous analyses on Zheng’s matches, from the end of last season and the start of this season, we noted her forehand return struggles. The most extreme situation were her 21 forehand return errors in 2 tight sets at the WTA Elite Trophy final against Beatriz Haddad Maia.
So this would be a key matchup, pitting strength against weakness.
As expected, Swiatek went after the Zheng forehand return. This time however, Zheng was up to the challenge. In 29 forehand returns against 1st serves plus 9 against 2nd serves, Zheng only missed 3 returns.
Swiatek kept targeting the forehand with her 1st serves (29 of 43, 67%), but final numbers show she did a lot better when serving to the backhand.
Swiatek 1st serve points won
to FH: 13/29 (45%)
to BH: 10/14 (71%)
From Zheng’s perspective, she won 16 of 29 (55%) points against Swiatek’s 1st serve when hitting a forehand return. Big improvement!
A big part of Zheng’s gameplan was her focus on heavy/loopy, deep returns instead of immediate offense. By controlling errors and preventing early-rally attacks from Swiatek, she increased her opponent’s tension. It resulted in uncharacteristic errors from the world #1, propelling Zheng to reach break point in all 4 of her return games in set 1, and in 7 of 10 overall, for 6 breaks.
There is no better example than when Swiatek served 4-0 up in set 2.
Notice below how Zheng went for conservative returns. She sought height and depth and forced Swiatek to hit uncomfortable “serve+1s.”
📺 credit: Eurosport / Max
From 0/40, Swiatek coughed up a double fault on the second break point (more on that below). Soon, 4-0 was 4-4.
In a pivotal moment of the match, Zheng was masterful at stopping Swiatek’s momentum and instilling doubts right back in her mind.
2. Swiatek’s Backhand
The points shown above share one thing: they all ended on a Swiatek backhand error.
"I just had a hole in my backhand. It happens rarely because it is usually my most solid strike. I was not technically well positioned because of the stress and the fact that I played my games day-to-day. We didn’t have time to adjust that and work on that. I know that’s not the justification, but I tried to correct that during the match. Today it didn’t work at all. So, she used that to win the game."
— Iga Swiatek to Eurosport Poland
From her own words, Swiatek’s perception was that the backhand let her down.
It is interesting that return and groundstroke numbers offer an alternative perspective. From each wing, Swiatek made exactly 15 unforced errors. If we combine winners with forcing shots, Swiatek hit 14 winning forehand groundstrokes and 13 winning backhand groundstrokes. Yes, Swiatek had twice more backhand forced errors (11-5), but the gap was mostly created by return errors. Somewhat expected given that Zheng targeted the backhand in 22 of 35 (63%) 1st serves.
Objectively, Swiatek’s backhand performance wasn’t far from her forehand. But it is fascinating to see that Swiatek’s confidence took a hit because she expects it to be rock-solid and can’t tolerate its mistakes.
3. Clutch moments
Swiatek is often praised for her ability to rise during clutch moments. This time however, it was Zheng who shone while Swiatek crumbled under pressure.
Double faults: Swiatek conceded the first break of the match, in the third game, with a double fault. Then, at 4-0 in set 2, she hit another double fault on break point. It was the start of Zheng’s comeback.
Errors: In addition to double faults, Swiatek accumulated 4 more errors while surrendering breaks. Twice in set 1, she lost serve on forehand unforced errors. In set 2, it was the backhand that leaked 2 mistakes.
Missed openings: Swiatek was 2 points away from winning the second set as Zheng served at 4-5 15/30. After Zheng missed the first serve, Swiatek had an opening; but instead of pouncing on it as she normally does, Swiatek sent wide a backhand return. There was a very similar scenario as Zheng served for the match at 6-5. Again, Swiatek had a 15/30 advantage and again she missed a 2nd serve backhand return.
Zheng’s break point saves in set 2: At 3-4 in set 2, Zheng was a hold away from recovering from double-break down. But all the hard work was at risk when Zheng faced 2 break points in the 8th game. Later, serving at 6-5 (and even though Swiatek made the return error at 15/30), Zheng still had to face a break point that would take the set to a tie-break.
In these 3 moments, Zheng came up with an unreturned serve and two winning “serve+1s”, never allowing Swiatek a chance.
In this match, Zheng lifted her level on crunch time repeatedly, while Swiatek was unable to do so.
4. Zheng’s rallying superiority
Some final numbers to emphasize Zheng’s superiority during rallies.
From the back of the court, Zheng won 54% (43/80) of points while Swiatek was limited to a low 40% (29/72).
When both players stood simultaneously at the baseline, Zheng enjoyed a 40-28 advantage.
It was only at the net that Swiatek performed up to her standards, winning 10 of 13 points (77%).
2024 Olympic Games Semi-Final - Match Data
Set-by-Set Stats
*** We have made changes to our summary tables. Please give us your feedback.
Points Won by Rally Length
Serve and Return
Winners and Errors (returns & rally shots)
Direction of winning shots and unforced errors (only groundstrokes)
2nd Serves
Swiatek - Forehand Performance
Swiatek - Backhand Performance
Zheng - Forehand Performance
Zheng - Backhand Performance
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
*** Starting at the Olympics, we have made changes to our summary tables. Please provide us your feedback.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers