Krejcikova vs Zheng: Zhengzhou Final Analysis (WTA 500)
Karaoke played out only after the crowd had been treated to a Qinwen Zheng original. Zheng secured her second Tour title, cementing her place as one the game’s brightest prospects.
Serve quality was a major factor in the Zhengzhou final as 30% of the points played were unreturned serves (plus 7% were double faults).
The outcome of the first 2 sets associated with these serve-related metrics:
1st serves in %
Unreturned serves %
Return errors
Set 1
Although Zheng began with a 2-0 lead, she ended set 1 with a low 29% of 1st serves in. Krejcikova pounced on Zheng’s struggles and broke 3 times in row, converting the early 0-2 deficit into a 6-2 advantage. Zheng served poorly and she also had difficulties to cope with Krejcikova’s serve, committing 9 return errors.
1st serves in %: Krejcikova 58% / Zheng 29%
Unreturned serves %: Krejcikova 42% / Zheng 19%
Return errors: Krejcikova 3 / Zheng 9
Set 2
A complete reversal was seen in set 2. Krejcikova’s 1st serve % dropped to 20%, missing the 1st serve on her last 10 points of the set. In contrast, Zheng improved her 1st serve percentage to 68% and she held serve 4 times without facing a BP. While Zheng cut her return errors to 3 (as she was mostly dealing with 2nd serves), Krejcikova ended the set with 7 return errors.
1st serves in %: Krejcikova 20% / Zheng 68%
Unreturned serves %: Krejcikova 12% / Zheng 45%
Return errors: Krejcikova 7 / Zheng 3
Set 3
The story of the third set was a bit different. Both players placed a high % of 1st serves (above 70%) and they committed a similar number of return errors.
1st serves in %: Krejcikova 72% / Zheng 75%
Return errors: Krejcikova 7 / Zheng 6
Despite these similarities, there was a 19% gap in unreturned serves, in favour of Zheng. This difference was established, not due to return errors, but because Zheng found her best serves and delivered 6 aces.
Unreturned serves %: Krejcikova 22% / Zheng 41%
The other key factor in set 3 was fatigue. As the match progressed, average rally length increased steadily, from 2.55 in set 1 to 4.81 in set 3. There were 18 points lasting 9+ shots during the match; 15 were played in set 3. Rally average was particularly high on Krejcikova’s serve points in set 3 at 6.08 shots per point.
The 3rd set lasted over an hour. If Zheng appeared fresher and energetic while Krejcikova looked fatigued, this statement was backed up by numbers collected from longer points (points that lasted 5 shots or more).
Here is how longer points in set 3 ended (from more to less frequent):
Zheng: 7 winners
Krejcikova: 7 Unforced Errors (UFEs)
Zheng: 5 Forced Errors (FEs)
Zheng: 4 UFEs
Krejcikova: 3 FEs
Krejcikova: 0 winners
Zheng had the energy to strike 7 groundstroke winners while Krejcikova did not produce a single groundstroke winner from the 5th shot onwards. Their winners numbers were discrepant but their errors were very similar. Krejcikova made 10 errors (including 7 unforced) and Zheng committed 9 errors (4 UFEs).
Under the circumstances, credit must be given to Krejcikova for twice coming from a break down to level at 4-4 in set 3.
But Zheng was not to be denied. She showed great character in producing a comeback win, especially after such lacklustre 1st set. Under a meaningful and pressure-filled moment, she closed out the match in style with 2 aces and a love hold.
Barbora Krejcikova (WTA #12, seed 7) vs Qinwen Zheng (WTA #23)
WTA 500 Zhengzhou Final - Match Data and noteworthy stats
Serve & Return
Zheng won 73% of 1st serve points (10% better than Krejcikova).
Krejcikova won 41% of 2nd serve points (11% more than Zhang).
Zheng finished with 36% unreturned serves (10% better than Krejcikova).
Zheng improved returning over the last 2 sets, with her best numbers coming in the 3rd set. She won 42% vs 1st serves and won 80% vs 2nd serves.
Both players struggled to return 1st serves in set 1.
Krejcikova’s returns in play vs 1st serves remained around 50% from set to set.
1st Serves
Krejcikova favoured wide serves.
She was more successful on Deuce court points.
Zheng served more frequently to the Krejcikova forehand (FH).
Zheng won all 9 points she served down the T on the Deuce court (including 5 aces).
Her win-rate was higher when she served to the backhand (BH).
2nd Serves
Krejcikova opted for 2nd serves to the BH (with a preponderance of body backhand serves).
Zheng also delivered frequent body backhand serves on the Deuce court. On the AD court, she used more variation.
Rallying
Zheng hit 5 more winners (19 vs 14) as she found her power during set 3 (10 winners in set 3).
For both players, winners and UFEs were more frequent from FHs.
Krejcikova induced 22 rallying forced errors (10 more than Zheng).
Rallying performance “maps”
A large portion of the FH misses by Krejcikova occurred as she attempted crosscourt FHs.
A recurrent error by Zheng came when she tried BHs down the line, in particular as she had been pulled wide.
Strategy
Once rallies settled, the match was close to a tie.
Both players won 49% of baseline points.
Each player won 40 points when they simultaneously rallied from the back of the court.
Krejcikova came forward more frequently and her win-rate was slightly higher.
Rally Length
Match average rally length = 3.77 shots/point
Rally average on Krejcikova’s serve points = 4.53
Rally average on Zheng’s serve points = 2.88
Krejcikova was +4 in shorter points. Zheng delivered 5 more unreturned serves, but Krejcikova recovered that deficit by ruling 2-shot and 3-shot points (Krejcikova was +11 on those).
Zheng had a +4 advantage in both medium-length rallies and longer rallies.
Points won breakdown
This final section intends to give a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
Credits: Thumbail photo credit: Zhengzhou Open official twitter account.