WTA1000 Miami: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula final analysis
Miami forehand heat
The Miami Open final was the third time in the last 4 big US hardcourt events that Aryna Sabalenka (WTA #1) and Jessica Pegula (WTA #4) faced off for the title.
Runner-up in Cincinnati and the US Open, Pegula was desperate to avoid losing to Sabalenka yet again. A sentiment that was actually shared by the world #1 because she had also felt beaten by herself in the recent Australian Open and Indian Wells finals.
“Honestly, was me against me. I made a lot of unforced errors on important points, and I just let her play a little bit better.”
— Aryna Sabalenka after losing the Indian Wells final
In the Miami title decider played at Hard Rock Stadium, Pegula made it close for the first 10 games but couldn’t replicate Andreeva’s ability to drive Sabalenka into second-guessing herself or Keys’ shot power to strike back whenever Sabalenka shifted into a higher gear.
So the top seed ripped her way into 19 more winners (31 vs 12), a +4 differential between winners and unforced errors and another straight sets victory.
Without losing a set all fortnight, Sabalenka secured her 8th career WTA 1000 title. At 26, she has already clinched half of the big tournaments, with wins in 2 of 4 Majors and 5 of 10 WTA 1000s.
The triumphant South Florida run allowed Sabalenka to crack the 10,000 points milestone for the very first time and extended her lead at the top of the WTA rankings to 3,000+ points: 10,541 points versus 7,470 points for Iga Swiatek.
Plenty of reasons to smile and celebrate!
1. Tight for the first 10 games
The initial stages of the match brought to memory the break-filled 2024 US Open final. On that occasion, each set featured 5 breaks in 12 games. This time, both players took it a step further and split 6 breaks across the first 10 games.
During this period, Pegula delivered quality returns that tamed Sabalenka’s serve and aggressive game behind it. As a result, the world #1 was limited to a single “serve+1” winner and a 47% 1st serve win-rate while the world #4 created break chances in 4 of 5 return games and broke 3 times.
“Serve+1” Performances (first 10 games)
Sabalenka: 1 winner / 5 errors = -4
Pegula: 1 winner +1 forcing / 3 errors = -1
Also huge for Pegula early on was the way she dominated crosscourt forehand battles. By winning 6 of 7 rallies that developed through the Deuce court (marked by red box, below), she actually had 1 more rally won after 10 games and 47 rallies played (24 to 23).
→ A couple of winning shots from Pegula while trading crosscourt forehands
📺 source: WTA Tv
By outgunning Sabalenka’s powerful forehand during those early Deuce court rallies, Pegula presented very similar forehand groundstroke numbers to her opponent’s after the first 10 games.
Forehand Groundstroke Performances (first 10 games)
Sabalenka: 4 winners + 3 forcing / 13 errors = -6
Pegula: 3 winners + 4 forcing / 15 errors = -8
On the negative side for Pegula, she couldn’t find her best level when serving and, like Sabalenka, conceded 3 breaks in the first 5 serve games.
The American’s woes were mostly related to a 29% win-rate on the more frequent used AD court body 1st serves (only won 2 of 7 points, as highlighted by the gold ellipse) and an even worse winning percentage on 2nd serves: just 1 of 9 points won, for 11%.
Another key factor was how she struggled to stop Sabalenka whenever the top seed elevated her game and went on a big run.
Pegula held 2 break points in the opening game of the match but Sabalenka reacted with a 7-point sequence that instead gave her with a 2-0 lead.
After Pegula won 3 consecutive games to move ahead 3-2, Sabalenka strung 8 points in row from the tail end of the 6th game that turned the set around and led to a 5-3 lead.
Even though Pegula managed to recover and square the first set at 5-5, she couldn’t find an answer when Sabalenka countered yet again in the following 2 games, this time with her most potent run of the match... taking us to part 2 of this analysis.