WTA125 Cancun: Emiliana Arango vs Carson Branstine final analysis
A sick Branstine was unable to challenge Arango as the Colombian claimed her first career WTA 125 title
The final of the inaugural WTA 125 Tennis Open Cancún was a clash between 24-year olds Emiliana Arango (WTA #165) and qualifier Carson Branstine (WTA #274). Both finalists took the court looking for their highest-level title to date but only Arango had a realistic chance to clinch it.
Branstine’s dream week turned into nightmare on the eve of the final as she got sick. To her credit, the Canadian played through to the end of the championship match but she was far from ideal physical condition.
It was tough for Branstine to win points, let alone the required number of games to take the final, with Arango sliding and covering the court like this all day long.
📺 source: WTA Unlocked
Arango, a consummate professional, didn’t deviate an inch from her typical grinding gamestyle. After surviving 3 match points in her semi-final win over 8-seed Francesca Jones (WTA #154), the Colombian was ruthlessly focused on not letting her second opportunity for a first WTA 125 title slip away.
She had also saved 2 match points in a semi-final win over Panna Udvardy to qualify for her first ever WTA 125 final in Santa Cruz last November, but then lost the title decider in straight sets to Anca Todoni.
In the end, the only déjà vu seen was Arango putting together another career week in Mexico. Her best result so far on the main Tour is a run to the quarters at WTA 1000 Guadalajara in 2023, leading to a career-high ranking #109. On that occasion, Arango was unable to back it up with good enough results to crack the Top-100.
Will the most recent success in Mexico propel her to achieve such goal, this time around? Following the Cancún title, Arango jumped from #165 to #133.
The Cancún final was played under such atypical conditions that we will only mention a couple of facts and stats.
There was no way Branstine would outrally Arango from the back of the court, so the Canadian attacked the net 30 times.
She produced 7 volley/overhead winners but also showed physical discomfort while hitting a few net shots.
If attacking the net was Branstine’s best (only) option to succeed, her final win-rate of 43% (13 of 30) at the net fell short.
Arango is happy to build up points patiently from neutral. She also has an uncanny ability to extend rallies with defensive slices on the stretch. Here is an example:
So this was probably one of the worst possible match-ups for Branstine, considering how she was feeling.
The Canadian was forced to endure several long serve games without the mental boost of winning any of those battles. Branstine served 76 points, including 16 with the score at Deuce, and lost all 8 serve games while Arango served just 35 times, was not taken to Deuce once and held in 4 out of 7 serve games.
To wear down Branstine even further, as if she needed it, her serve points were 2.4 shots longer on average.
Average rally length by server
Arango serve points: 3.83 shots/point
Branstine serve points: 6.24 shots/point
While Arango had the edge in all rally length categories, her win-rate increased as points got longer. The Colombian feasted on long exchanges, winning 21 of 28 points (75%) that lasted 9 or more shots.
A too predictable outcome given how distant the finalists were in terms of physical condition.
Arango’s win-rate by length
short points: 55% (27 of 49)
medium points: 59% (20 of 34)
long points: 75 % (21 of 28)
As a parting note, it’s quite extraordinary that the fate of the Cancún final was sealed the day before, when Arango saved 3 match points in her semi while Branstine got sick hours after completing her semi!
Emiliana Arango (WTA #165) vs Carson Branstine (WTA #274, qualifier)
2025 Cancún final - Match Data
*** Given Branstine’s struggles on the day, some routine-looking shots posed tougher than normal challenges. Without the ability to measure that, we maintained our usual criteria when determining if errors where forced or unforced. Therefore, final numbers shown here are certainly too harsh on Branstine.
Set by Set Stats
Strokes Breakdown
Winners and Errors (returns and rally shots)
Direction of winning shots and unforced errors (only groundstrokes)
Serve and Return
1st Serves
2nd Serves
Return & rallying performance
Points won breakdown
This final section gives a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers