WTA250 Austin: Jessica Pegula vs McCartney Kessler final analysis
A match affected by a strong headwind and decided by opposite forecourt efficiencies
Jessica Pegula (WTA #5) defeated McCartney Kessler (WTA #53) 7-5, 6-2 in the ATX Open final to clinch her 7th WTA Tour singles title and become the first American champion in the short history of the event.
Pegula’s total commitment to the Austin tournament, from her on-court title run to her involvement in off-court activities, was her perfect way to give back for being the involuntary reason Madison Keys was barred from playing her first official match as a Major winner in Austin.
In case you’re wondering, here is the tournament’s press release explaining why current WTA Tour rules prevented Keys from participating:
“As a 250-level tournament, the ATX Open is permitted to feature just one Top 10 player unless the defending champion returns as a Top 10 ranked player. […]
With World No. 6 Jessica Pegula already committed to the event, WTA rules prevent us from having a second Top 10 player in the draw. When we entered an agreement with Madison, her ranking was World No. 21. Now with her title wins in both Adelaide and Melbourne, her ranking has moved to World No. 7. As a result of her new ranking, Madison will, unfortunately, not be able to compete in this year’s ATX Open.”
The tournament couldn’t have Keys but made sure Pegula felt welcomed. Jessie’s fun week in Texas included highlights such as a visit to the Circuit of the Americas, having the crowd sing “Happy Birthday” in celebration of her 31st birthday, some public ice cream serving and an unexpected pre-match meet and greet with Matthew McConaughey (also post-match, but that one didn’t have the same surprise factor).
Once the ATX Open was over, it was time for Pegula to be kind and generous to her fellow peers, easing the travel burden of the players involved in the doubles final (Kessler included) by offering them a private jet ride to Indian Wells. A gesture that was acknowledged on social media appreciation posts by Zhang Shuai and Yuan Yue.
Now let’s look back at the 2025 ATX Open singles final, played under a strong headwind. Challenging conditions that never allowed any of the finalists to feel fully comfortable on court, affected the quality of play, made it tough to hit winners (12 for Pegula, 7 for Kessler) and led to a few more errors than usual (52 for Pegula, 59 for Kessler).
Pegula started the final jumping to an early 2-0 lead, but any suggestions that she had grasped the windy conditions were immediately put aside when the top seed accumulated 7 errors off each wing over the following 4 games. This allowed Kessler to recover from 0-2 down to 4-2 up and, with Pegula struggling so much to find the court, gave the lower ranked finalist a great chance to take a one set lead.
However, Kessler’s relative inexperience showed when she made a couple of loose errors in the 7th game that greatly contributed to halting her momentum.
→ Kessler’s 4-game run ended in the 7th game after she overhit a 2nd serve forehand return at 0/15 and missed a routine put away while almost on top of the net at 30/15.
📺 source: WTA Tv
From there, Kessler ended up losing her lead, and then the first set, due to a continued and unusual inefficacy in the forecourt, as we show below.
→ At 4-3 Deuce, Kessler couldn’t control a backhand volley. This led to a break point chance that Pegula converted to get the set back level at 4-4.
→ Unlike Kessler, Pegula was showing great efficiency when moving forward. At 4-4 30/30, Pegula avoided facing a break point by following up a great serve with a careful slice approach (probably influenced by Kessler’s inability to control her approach from that end of the court, moments earlier) that set up an overhead winner. The top seed took the ensuing game point to hold serve and make it 3 games in a row.
→ In a welcome pause to her net struggles, Kessler was able to extend the opener by hitting consecutive volley winners (2 of 3 she hit in the entire match) from 4-5 15/30, so when she was 2 points away from losing the set.
→ But Kessler’s forecourt woes quickly returned. Here, she wasted a great opportunity to start the 11th game 0/30 up.
→ Despite that miss, Kessler still managed to accrue a break point chance later in the game. It looked like she had done all the hard work with a powerful return and would be serving for the set. However, Pegula kept the point alive with a great save and Kessler failed to steer her approach shot from the alley back into court enough.
→ Kessler missed another short ball in the very next point. So instead of creating another break point opportunity, she saw Pegula move 6-5 ahead.
→ Serving again to stay in the set at 5-6, Kessler had already saved a set point when she held a game point to force a tie-break. Kessler came forward once more and this time she was denied by a spectacular backhand passing shot from Pegula.
Pegula’s stunning winner was followed by a Kessler backhand error and a double fault on set point #2, so the set was over.
First set stats showed Kessler had a 1-point edge when both players rallied simultaneously from the baseline (23-22), but she was penalized for winning just 4 of 12 net approaches (33%). Pegula’s 80% win-rate on forward moves (8/10) was heads and shoulders above Kessler’s and made all the difference in the first set.
Kessler did well to leave the disappointment behind as she started the second set with a break.
But Pegula responded with a level raise that sparked her best phase of the match. The top seed won 4 straight games, making just 3 unforced errors during that period while striking a few quality shots that crushed Kessler’s hopes for good.
→ Kessler’s last chances to get back in the match were a couple of break points when Pegula served at 3-1. Pegula was swift to erase both with a pair of “serve+1” forehands, then reached a 4-1 lead with a quality backhand line winner on game point.
Unlike Kessler in set 1, Pegula held on to the lead created by that 4-game sequence and was soon crowned the 2025 ATX Open champion.
Curiously, second set stats showed both players finished with the same net approaching win-rates of the first set, albeit on fewer points: Pegula again at 80% (4/5) and Kessler at 33% (1/3).
The second set was more one-sided because Pegula’s improved play led to a reversal in baseline duels: she finished with a 4-point advantage (18-14).
Overall, the striking final match numbers were created by opposite performances on short balls or at the net.
Pegula finished +4 on approaches and +2 on volley/overheads. Kessler was -3 on approaches and -1 on volley/overheads.
Pegula
approaches: 3 winners + 3 forcing / 2 forced errors = +4
volleys/overheads: 3 winners / 1 forced error = +2
Kessler
approaches: 1 winner +1 forcing / 3 unforced + 2 forced errors = -3
volleys/overheads: 3 winners / 2 unforced + 2 forced errors = -1
In total, each player moved forward 15 times during the match.
Pegula won 12 of her advances while Kessler could only win 5.
A gap that gets larger when we consider the amount of big points, particularly in the first set, that were decided with one the finalists approaching or at the net.
Jessica Pegula (WTA #5, seed 1) vs McCartney Kessler (WTA #53, seed 5)
2025 Austin final - Match Data
Set by Set Stats
Points Won by Rally length
Rally length
Strokes Breakdown
Winners and Errors (returns and rally shots)
Direction of winning shots and unforced errors (only groundstrokes)
Serve and Return
1st Serves
2nd Serves
Return & rallying performance
Points won breakdown
This final section gives a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers