WTA250 Rouen: Elina Svitolina vs Olga Danilovic final analysis
Svitolina mounted comebacks in the first set and in the second set tie-break to improve her already stellar record in Tour finals
Amidst the Iberian Peninsula blackout and some Substack network problems, it’s finally here our recap of the Rouen title decider from 9 days ago. Sorry for the delay! Hope you enjoy this piece!
The 2025 edition of the WTA 250 Open Capfinances Rouen was decided between players usually delivering their best tennis once they reach the last day of the event.
Top seed Elina Svitolina (WTA #18) came in with a formidable 17-4 record in Tour level championship matches and a career win-rate of 80% in 30 singles finals (24-6) across all pro levels.
Third seed Olga Danilovic (WTA #39) brought significantly less experience at Tour level title deciders — 2-1 record in just 3 previous finals — but she boasted a 73% career win-rate in 15 finals (11-4) across all levels and was undefeated in championship matches since July 2022.
The 2025 Rouen final began with Danilovic’s forehand dictating, ripping winners or allowing her to gain a decisive position at the net, as she gained an early break lead.
→ A pair of Danilovic run-around forehand winners to close out the second game and confirm the opening break advantage
📺 source: WTA Tv
→ Danilovic was moving forward at every opportunity
Down 1-3, Svitolina came back by leaning on her serve — ended the opener with 4 aces and 5 more serves that induced return errors — and increasing the intensity of her baseline game.
→ Svitolina stole some of the initiave to break back and level at 3-3
The Ukrainian’s level raise helped cool down Danilovic’s groundstrokes. The Serb was still the player ending most points, but she was now making some unforced errors.
Serving to stay in the set at 4-5, Danilovic opened the door with a double fault and a “serve+1” forehand miss in the first 2 points. Svitolina pounced on the chance, striking consecutive winners to clinch the set with a love break.
→ The top seed completed the first set comeback with back-to-back winners. She took 5 of the last 6 games
After players traded breaks to start the second set, there were no more break points until the 12th game when Danilovic held her nerve to save a Svitolina championship point.
→ Danilovic’s forehand came to rescue as she saved a championship point at 5-6
Danilovic followed it up with 2 winning forehands to take the set into a tie-break. It ended up as a copy of first set proceedings.
Danilovic made the better start in the breaker, reaching a 5:2 lead with a pair of forehand winners (shown below) and a sudden burst from her backhand return that resulted in 3 winning replies.
But then the Serb accumulated unforced errors when it was time to close out the frame. Up 6:4, she squandered a pair of set points with forehand mistakes.
→ From 6:4, Danilovic made consecutive forehand unforced errors to waste 2 set points
Those were costly misses because Danilovic never led again. The best she managed to do was extend the final with 2 line winners when staring at defeat.
→ Two thrilling championship point saves from Danilovic
Svitolina earned championship point #4 with an ace at 8:8.
At 8:9, Danilovic started out with a the traditional lefty slice serve [more on that further down in this analysis]. Svitolina responded with a central return that carried enough depth to set up a winning “return+1” line forehand and secure her 18th career title.
In a high-quality match, both finalists finished with a positive differential between winners and unforced errors:
Svitolina at +13, from 27 winners and 14 UEs
Danilovic at +5, from 36 winners and 31 UEs
Numbers that confirm their tendencies to play well on championship day!
A lot of the action developed through the AD court, much to the liking of the lefty Danilovic. But Svitolina wasn’t too bothered with it. Instead of being desperate to shift exchanges to the other court half where the matchup would work in her favour, the Ukrainian trusted her backhand would be up for the challenge against her opponent’s forehand/hooking serves and create opportunities to counter.
Final stats back up Svitolina’s decision.
1. Against those lefty 1st serves that usually cause more damage to right-handers — T serves on the Deuce court and wide on the AD court — Svitolina won a combined 15 of 31 points, for a respectable 48% win-percentage (marked by yellow circles, image below).**
By contrast, Danilovic could only win 6 of 25 points (or 24%) that featured those 1st serves from righties that theoretically are more troublesome to lefties (marked by green circles, image below).
** Note on the AD side stats how Danilovic was just 13-for-23 (57%) when going for trademark lefty slice 1st serves out wide but finished a perfect 12-for-12 (100%) in that courtside on the 3 remaining serving locations.
2. Svitolina’s backhand saw more action and consequently, came under more pressure. It held up nicely, performing just 4 points worse than her forehand (-9 compared to -5). These were significantly more balanced differentials than Danilovic’s 20-point difference between backhand and forehand totals (-22 to -2).
Svitolina
Forehand: 15 winners / 20 errors = -5
Backhand: 6 winners / 15 errors = -9
Danilovic
Forehand: 26 winners / 28 errors = -2
Backhand: 5 winners / 27 errors = -22
Another way to look at these stats: Svitolina collected a 17-point advantage in the Deuce court comparison between her forehand and Danilovic’s backhand (-5 to -22) whereas the equivalent AD court comparison only resulted in a 7-point edge for Danilovic (-9 to -2). That created a 10-point surplus for Svitolina in a match with a final winning margin of 11 points (85 to 74).
Deuce court (Forehand vs Backhand)
Svitolina’s FH: 15 winners / 20 errors = -5
Danilovic’s BH: 5 winners / 27 errors = -22
+17 Svitolina
AD court (Backhand vs Forehand)
Svitolina’s BH: 6 winners / 15 errors = -9
Danilovic’s FH: 26 winners / 28 errors = -2
+7 Danilovic
Whichever way we look at it, Danilovic’s backhand always comes out as the weakest link on the day. The Serb was particularly error-prone on crosscourt backhands, accumulating 8 unforced errors with a single winning groundstroke (marked by blue box).
Those unremarkable numbers get even worse considering Svitolina didn’t make a single unforced error on crosscourt backhands while producing 6 winning groundstrokes (marked by green box).
In the end, Danilovic did great when she managed to move forward, winning 11 of 14 (79%) net approaches. But the back of the court belonged to Svitolina.
With supreme consistency and very few offers in the form of unforced errors, the top seed crafted a 52-40 superiority in baseline duels that was vital to her 18th career Tour title.
Elina Svitolina (WTA #18, seed 1) vs Olga Danilovic (WTA #39, seed 3)
2025 Rouen final - Match Data
Set by Set Stats
Points Won by Rally Length
Rally length
Strokes Breakdown
Serve and Return
2nd Serves
Return & rallying performance
Points won breakdown
This final section gives a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers