Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa: Australian Open quarter-final analysis
Badosa dominated long rallies and baseline duels by neutralizing Gauff's backhand and peppering Gauff's forehand until an error leaked
** Sorry everyone but the only analysis you are probably looking forward right now is more than one day away. Hoping you still enjoy this one as we start working on the breathtaking Keys vs Swiatek match we just witnessed!
An extremely solid Paula Badosa inflicted the first defeat of the season on Coco Gauff to finally advance past the quarters in a Major, at the third attempt.
An outcome that left Badosa “emotional and super-proud” of all the hurdles she had overcome. She recalled how tough it was to deal with her disappointments in previous Slam quarter-finals, in a glimpse reference to her 5-7, 6-4, 6-8 loss to Tamara Zidansek at the 2021 French Open and last year’s US Open match against Emma Navarro, during which Badosa conceded 6 straight games from 5-1 up in the second set, to get knocked out in two sets instead of playing a decider.
📸 cover source: Australian Open
The Spaniard also remembered how one year ago she flirted with retirement due to a stress fracture in her back that healed slowly, a chronic back injury and the constant pain that continued to affect her.
Even though doctors’ opinions weren’t very reassuring, Badosa leaned on her mental toughness and resilience to fight on and keep her tennis dreams alive.
All tears and sacrifices have now paid off as the former #2 is guaranteed a return to the Top-10 for the first time since October 2022 and will play good friend Aryna Sabalenka for a spot in the 2025 Australian Open final.
To defeat Gauff and reach her first career Major semi-final, Badosa executed to perfection a gameplan built on:
controlled number of unforced errors
mastery of long rallies
superb efficiency behind her 2nd serve, in particular on the Deuce side
great awareness and physicality to sustain Gauff’s (crosscourt) backhand drives
last but certainly not least, all of the above combined to test and crack Gauff’s forehand. Badosa kept feeding that wing ball after ball, often offering very little angle for Gauff to work with.
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While Gauff has been criticized in the past for winning ugly, this time she was the one challenged to come up with the difference-making strike.
The American third-seed enjoyed some success, finishing with twice more winners (31 to 14). But her performance was hampered by 2 major problems:
Gauff’s ability to hit winners reduced dramatically once rallies developed.
Almost all of Gauff’s advantage in the winner count originated from a 14-1 score in “serve+1” winners. From the 4th shot onwards, Gauff hit 11 winners and Badosa had 9.
The superiority in total winners came at the expense of 18 more unforced errors (41 to 23).
Most of Gauff’s unforced errors, 29 to be precise, leaked from the forehand wing as she increasingly lost confidence on that shot as the match (and rallies) progressed.
Long rallies lasting 9+ shots constituted just 22 of the 149 points played, or 15% of the match. However, they ended up determining the final outcome by giving Badosa a decisive 6-point edge (14 to 8).
Points won by rally length
0-8 shots: Badosa +1 (64-63)
9+ shots: Badosa +6 (14-8)
In an extraordinary piece of data, Badosa won 9 of the 10 longest rallies in the match, for an 8-point advantage that exceeded her final winning margin of 7 points (marked by orange box).
→ Red notations highlight Badosa’s superiority in long rallies. The 10 longest rallies, identified by the orange box, resulted in a 9-1 score for Badosa. Blue arrow points to Gauff’s advantage in 3-shot rallies, created by her greater ability to strike “serve+1” winners.
The following video is perfect to show some of the key traits in the match. You can see a couple of long rallies play out, a trio of forehand errors from Gauff and the ensuing negative body language that reflected her increasing frustration.
📺 source: Eurosport / Max
These points were all taken from the rollercoaster opening game of the second set.
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