WTA125 Antalya II: Olga Danilovic vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva final analysis
A dominant return to clay for the top seed
Olga Danilovic (WTA #41) lists hard as her favorite surface. A fact that will probably surprise most tennis fans, knowledgeable that all her prominent early-career results were achieved on clay.
By September of last year, Danilovic totalled 8 singles titles and 12 finals across all pro levels, each one of them reached on the red dirt. Her deepest runs in Majors had also happened at Roland Garros — third round in 2023, fourth round in 2024 — and she had never been past the quarterfinals at any hardcourt event.
But everything changed during a magical October when the 24-year old Serb went undefeated to finish her 2024 season. A string of 10 match wins that brought a first hardcourt title at ITF W100 Barcelona, immediately followed by a second title on the surface at WTA 250 Guangzhou that also ended a 6-year quest for a second overall triumph on the WTA Tour.
Danilovic’s first month of the new season was another one to remember as she cracked the Top-50 for the very first time on the heels of a fourth round berth at the Australian Open, earned with quality wins over Liudmila Samsonova and Jessica Pegula.
Hardcourts can be where Danilovic’s heart is — and the last 6 months have finally vindicated her choice — but she seems to find something extra when courts turn red and slippery.
The latest evidence to back up this claim was delivered at the second installment of the WTA 125 Megasaray Hotels Open in Antalya (Turkey). Danilovic, the highest ranked player in the draw, swept through the opposition without losing more than 3 games in a set, for a very dominant and triumphant return to clay.
The rain that started falling in the early stages of the second set of the final, and eventually forced an interruption when the Serb was leading 6-2, 4-2 was probably the only thing that bothered her all week.
But not even the 1.5-hour delay or the court change that followed could derail Danilovic. Once the match resumed, she required just 3 more games to complete a 6-2, 6-3 win over fellow lefty Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (WTA #151), who was competing in her highest-level career final to date.
The WTA 125 Antalya II championship match began with Danilovic striking a forehand return winner in the first point and grabbing an opening break lead.
She consolidated her advantage with back-to-back love holds that featured either unreturned serves or a serve plus a single follow-up shot as Jimenez Kasintseva was having trouble dealing with Danilovic’s kicking serves. Something that persisted throughout the match and led to Danilovic winning 12 of 16 (75%) 2nd serve points and Jimenez Kasintseva never managing to generate much pressure with her returns.
By contrast, the top seed sealed a 4-1 double break lead with yet another forehand return winner. While she had to work harder in the 6th game, erasing 3 break points, Danilovic was not broken in the set and closed it by 6-2.
Set 1 key stats
1st serves won: Danilovic 81% / Jimenez Kasintseva 56%
2nd serves won: Danilovic 71% / Jimenez Kasintseva 29%
Forced errors during rallies: Danilovic 0 / Jimenez Kasintseva 5
Winners-to-unforced errors differentials: Danilovic +2 / Jimenez Kasintseva -6
The second set began very much the same way: Danilovic broke to start and consolidated with a love hold.
At 0-2, Jimenez Kasintseva escaped a double-break hole by saving break point with a forceful crosscourt backhand. The 19-year old Andorran was now being more aggressive from the baseline. Alternating quality groundstrokes with unforced errors, in part because Danilovic was extending rallies with great defense, Jimenez Kasintseva managed to come out on top of a 14-point 3rd game and a 12-point 4th game, to square the second set at 2-2.
But the teenager crumbled to 4 forehand errors in the following game, so Danilovic reclaimed a break lead.
Serving at 3-2, the top seed avoided losing serve for a second straight time by covering the court from side to side during this 17-shot rally before finishing with a forehand winner.
Jimenez Kasintseva leaked an unforced error from each wing in the next 2 points to give Danilovic a 4-2 lead.
With rain pouring with increased intensity, the match was interrupted.
It resumed in a different court and with this 19-shot backhand tussle.
After Jimenez Kasintseva held, the following game featured another very long rally. It was a vital point played at Deuce and lasted 21 shots.
Danilovic took it and never looked back, winning 5 of the next 7 points to end the final and clinch her second WTA 125 title.
Set 2 key stats
1st serves won: Danilovic 52% / Jimenez Kasintseva 45%
2nd serves won: Danilovic 78% / Jimenez Kasintseva 50%
Forced errors during rallies: Danilovic 8 / Jimenez Kasintseva 12
Winners-to-unforced errors differentials: Danilovic -7 / Jimenez Kasintseva -13
Final stats showed that nearly all of the difference in the match was created by forehand groundstroke performances.
From that wing, Danilovic hit 9 groundstroke winners and 10 forcing shots with 14 errors, including 8 that were unforced. By comparison, Jimenez Kasintseva accumulated 1 less winner and 5 fewer forceful groundstrokes with 15 more errors, including 9 more unforced errors.
Danilovic’s superior forehand firepower in combination with greater error-control originated a massive 21-point advantage (+5 to -16) that won her the title.
Forehand Groundstroke Performances
Danilovic: 9 winners + 10 forcing / 14 errors = +5
Jimenez Kasintseva: 8 winners + 5 forcing / 29 errors = -16
Backhand Groundstroke Performances
Danilovic: 3 winners + 6 forcing / 21 errors = -12
Jimenez Kasintseva: 3 winners +3 forcing / 18 errors = -12
A deeper look at groundstroke data revealed that Jimenez Kasintseva was actually able to exceed by 1 point Danilovic’s production on run-around forehands.
It was through regular forehands that the difference was set. On those, Danilovic hit 12 winning shots with just 4 unforced errors for a +8 differential; Jimenez Kasintseva couldn’t rip more than 7 winning regular forehands while accumulating 13 unforced errors for a -6 differential.
That’s a 14-point advantage for Danilovic only on regular forehand groundstrokes (+8 to -6).
Regular forehand groundstrokes
Danilovic: 12 winning shots / 4 unforced errors = +8
Jimenez Kasintseva: 7 winning shots / 13 unforced errors = -6
Run-around forehand groundstrokes
Danilovic: 3 winning shots / 2 unforced errors = +1
Jimenez Kasintseva: 5 winning shots / 3 unforced errors = +2
Our final note is to highlight that Jimenez Kasintseva missed too many regular forehands from central areas of the court (marked by blue box on the right side, below) and, in the ened, it proved too costly.
Other notable final match stats
1st serves won: Danilovic 64% / Jimenez Kasintseva 49%
2nd serves won: Danilovic 75% / Jimenez Kasintseva 43%
Double faults: Danilovic 1 / Jimenez Kasintseva 6
0-4 shots won: Danilovic +14 (34-20)
9+ shots won: Danilovic +8 (22-14)
→ Curious fact: Servers won all 12 Deuce side points that featured a valid 2nd serve
Olga Danilovic (WTA #41, seed 1) vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (WTA #151)
2025 Antalya II final - Match Data
Set by Set Stats
Strategy Stats
Points Won by Rally length
Rally length
Winners and Errors (returns and rally shots)
Serve and Return
1st Serves
2nd Serves
Return & rallying performance
Points won breakdown
This final section gives a last, broader look at the match by presenting how each player won points. Points are listed according to their frequency (highest to lowest) and are named in relation to the last touch on the ball. For simplicity, groundstrokes hit from the 5th shot onwards are grouped together.
Breakdown by side (FHs or BHs)
Breakdown by error type (UFEs or FEs)
To find out more about the stats published here, please visit the following post.
While we follow the same criteria used on all major tennis events, our stats are collected through our own video analysis and are not official WTA or ITF stats.
Thanks for reading!
— Tennis Inside Numbers