Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek: Australian Open semi-final analysis

How Keys saved a match point and recovered from 5:7 down in the match tie-break to reach her second career Major final, more than 7 years after the first

Jan 25, 2025

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Madison Keys advanced to her second career Major final with an epic 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (10:8) triumph over Iga Swiatek. A grand reward for sticking to the lessons she learned from traumatic losses at the 2017 US Open final and her last 4 Major semi-finals: to be brave, fearless and play on own terms, if she ever had another chance.

A superb start to the 2025 season earned Keys that chance she so desperately wanted. And true to her word, she continued to swing big throughout a nail-biting final set, even after going match point down in the 12th game or facing multiple 2-point deficits during the match tie-break.

Keys refused to let another opportunity fly by and beat the current #2, despite entering the match with a 1-4 head-to-head record. She will try to overcome a similar 1-4 record against current #1 Aryna Sabalenka in the 2025 Australian Open final.

Both players are on 11-match winning streaks and a big-hitting contest with a fair number of crunching shots is expected.

Sabalenka will play for a 4th career Major title and a first threepeat Down Under since Martina Hingis in 1997-1999.

Keys will chase a career-defining victory that fulfills all those lofty expectations she’s been carrying since a young age. As a bonus, she will be looking to exorcise her 2023 US Open semi-final trauma — against Sabalenka, Keys served for the match at 6-0, 5-4; then led 4-2 and squandered 2 break points while ahead 4-3 in the final set before losing 6-0, 6-7(1:7), 6-7 (5:10).

📸 cover source: Australian Open

If Keys has a chance to become the first woman in 19 years to defeat the top-2 players in the world in back-to-back matches at a Major (Maria Sharapova last did it at the 2006 US Open with wins over Amelie Mauresmo and Justine Henin), we will now discuss how the 29-year-old American accomplished the first half of the feat.

First Set

With a place in the Australian Open final meaning so much to Swiatek and Keys, the match start was tense.

Swiatek threw in a few too many tentative 2nd serves and lost her first 2 serve games, after not getting broken in any of her previous 4 matches.

📺 source: Eurosport / Max

On the other end of the court, Keys was having trouble controlling her shots, so she failed to consolidate any of her early advantages.

Amidst 5 breaks in the first 6 games, Swiatek settled first. With excellent use of heavy down the line shots, she took command of rallies or finished points. She grabbed a 5-2 after stringing 4 games in a row.

By the end of the first set, as the table below shows, Swiatek’s line groundstrokes were the difference-makers (green box), in particular those from the forehand wing (7 winning line forehands with a single unforced error, blue box).

Intended direction of groundstroke winning shots (= winners+forcing shots) and unforced errors. Returns and volleys/overheads are not included. Down-the-line is considered broadly and includes more central shots that land on the same court half.

Ironically, it was with a missed down the line attempt (albeit from the backhand side) that the Pole failed to closed the set at 2-5 30/40.

By this time, Keys had calibrated her groundstrokes and was playing increasingly better. After dodging a bullet on that set point save, she roared back to 5-5.

Unfazed, Swiatek responded with 3 winning serves and a hold to love. Then she earned a second set point by stepping inside the court and attacking a couple of 2nd serves.

It took 4 more games but Swiatek finally clinched the first set when Keys netted a “serve+1” crosscourt backhand.