Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys: Australian Open final analysis
Keys fulfilled her huge potential and became a Major champion by smiling at her misses and playing freely and on her terms
Madison Keys defeated world #1 and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in a 2-hour thriller to complete one of the most sensational runs to a maiden Major title in tennis history. A storybook ending to Keys’ career quest for Slam glory.
The 29-year-old American managed to sustain her peak form across the Melbourne fortnight to overcome four Top-10 seeds (Danielle Collins, Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka), three Major winners, consecutive nail-biting matches against the Top-2 players in the world that went deep into a third set and a match point save on Swiatek’s serve. There was also a win over former #3 Elina Svitolina in the quarters and a second-round scrap with Elena-Gabriela Ruse that only ended 7-5 in the third.
An outstanding and battle-tested path to a first Slam trophy for Keys at her 46th Major main draw appearance — third most in women’s tennis behind Marion Bartoli (47) and Flavia Pennetta (49)!
If reaching the championship match was already no small feat given her draw, Keys clinched the title by conquering one of the toughest current challenges in tennis: to defeat Sabalenka in Melbourne. The world #1 entered the final riding a 20-match win-streak at the Australian Open and had won 33 of 34 matches played Down Under since the start of 2023.
Keys’ impressive run was made extra special by her ability to block heavy scar tissue (unreasonable expectations since a young age; past failures on Slams) from affecting her performance. Throughout the competition, the recent Adelaide champion shared how she now felt fully equipped to deal with the big moments, mentally-ready to stick to and impose her natural ball-striking talent in the clutchest of times. It was just a matter of getting another shot.
To improve her chances of reaching that elusive second chance — more than 7 years had passed since her first and what stubbornly stood as her only Major final, at the 2017 US Open — Keys also made several technical changes in recent months, to go along with her altered mindset. These included a revised serve motion and a significant racquet switch from her lifelong Wilson to a Yonex.
*** For insightful views on Keys’ recent changes as well as context to the huge expectations she’s had to deal since her teen years, I highly recommend checking out Ben Rothenberg’s work at Bounces, in particular these two wonderful posts: Keys Unlocks Her Toolshed and Major Keys.
From our 2025 Australian Open coverage:
Keys’ boldness and hard work paid off as she began the 2025 season playing some of the best tennis of her life. With 6 big wins in Melbourne, the 19th-seed earned the chance she so desperately wanted. And true to her words, she continued to swing fearlessly and aggressively even in the championship match.
Self-liberated from the burden of having to win a Major, Keys went on to secure her Major by ripping forehand winners late in the third set when the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup was on the line!
A lifelong dream achieved in a truly inspirational form!
If tennis fans were asked to describe the Sabalenka vs Keys match-up in short, the overwhelming answer would be “big-hitting contest”.
The intriguing side of the Australian Open final was that each finalist tried to impose her power using a different approach.
Keys sought flat and fast groundstrokes that robbed Sabalenka of vital time for her longer takebacks, especially on the forehand side. Depth was the essential element in Keys’ strokes as she looked to jam Sabalenka. There was nothing wrong in attacking through the middle.
→ Slomos of deep shots from Keys troubling Sabalenka
📺 source: Eurosport / Max
By contrast, Sabalenka was more intent on attacking the open court and making Keys run. The world #1 explored width, often delivering wide serves followed by “serve+1” groundstrokes directed to the opposite corner — plays known as “V attacks”.
Sabalenka also made frequent used of drop shots, an option that brought her tremendous success during the second set: 5 drop shot winners and 7-of-7 points won after attempting a dropper.
Remarkably, official AO data after two sets showed Keys had sprinted 35 times while Sabalenka had only done it on 7 occasions. Massive difference!
Unfortunately, we couldn’t find data for sprints in the final set (eye-test suggests it was similar to the previous sets). Still, the numbers registered after two sets speak volumes about the tactics each player was using and how much more court Keys was forced to cover.
Considering the shot-making ability of both finalists, their first-strike tennis mentality and the different strategies they wanted to implement, serving and returning performances could determine who would be able to strike first and therefore, potentially have the upper hand.
For the first 2 sets, this was certainly the case.
First Set
Sabalenka’s serve was off at the start. She coughed up 2 double faults in the opening game, including one at 30/30 to offer Keys an early break chance. Keys duly took it by pushing Sabalenka back with a deep return, finding the baseline on the following backhand and blasting a powerful forehand that forced an error.
In the 5th game, Sabalenka served another double fault at 30/30. This time, Keys converted the break point by hitting a sneaky defensive slice (a shot she now trusts more with the new racquet) that Sabalenka didn´t handle well.
While Sabalenka was struggling on serve, Keys was flying.
The American made her first 9 1st serves and 15 of her first 16 1st serves to reach a 5-1 lead while accumulating 6 unreturned deliveries and 2 winning “serve+1s” across her first 3 serve games.
At 1-5, Sabalenka prolonged the set with a wide unreturned AD serve to save a set point, holding after 3 Deuces. Despite the missed opportunity, Keys still hit some spectacular shots during that game.
But Keys’ level dropped when she served to close out the set at 5-2 and she conceded a break with 3 backhand unforced errors.
It was a short-lived crisis as Keys clinched the opener with a down the line backhand winner in the following game. Remarkably, she had been gifted that set point when Sabalenka served yet another double fault with the score at 30/30.
Set 1 key stats
1st serves in: Sabalenka 64% / Keys 86%
1st serves won: Sabalenka 43% / Keys 63%
Return games reaching break point: Sabalenka 1 / Keys 4
Winners: Sabalenka 4 / Keys 11
Winners-UFEs: Sabalenka -9 / Keys +1
0-4 shots: Keys +3 (21-18)
Second Set
In a fascinating turn of events, the second set was a reverse mirror image of the opener.
It was only natural that Keys’ serve cooled off after she landed 19 of 22 1st serves, for an outstanding 86% in the first set. It was a bit more unexpected that Sabalenka reacted by making 83% of her 1st serves (25/30) during the middle frame.
With such accuracy to go along with her serving power and quality, the world #1 was able to step inside the court and command points played behind her serve. This allowed her to be more aggressive and swing big when returning, further encouraged by the fact Keys was giving her more looks at 2nd serves. The combination of all of the above drastically reduced the influence of Keys’ forehand groundstrokes on the set — it dropped from 4 winners and 4 forcing shots in set 1 to just 1 winner and 1 forcing shot in set 2.
After missing a pair of break points to start the second set, Sabalenka secured a confidence-boosting break in Keys’ following serve game. The Belarusian secured it with a return winner on the first point and back-to-back winning returns at the end of the third game.
Floodgates opened after that and Sabalenka reached a 5-1 lead by stringing 5 games in a row.
During that span she made frequent use of drop shots, attempting them after quality serves that produced short replies, deep returns that forced Keys back or angled groundstrokes that took Keys off the court.
Sabalenka closed the set with 2 more points won off drop shots in the last game.